# First freeze looks likely next weekend in Chicago, Indianapolis, Nashville Published November 8, 2026, 8:31 AM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from National Weather Service data. Chicago, Indianapolis and Nashville have a good shot at their first 32-degree reading of the fall Saturday or Sunday morning, Nov. 14-15. Cincinnati also has a 65% chance, though a 32-degree reading Sunday may become its first freeze if confirmed. St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha are closer to even, while odds remain very low in the Deep South. ## Key points - **Where:** The Midwest and Ohio Valley, from Omaha and Kansas City east through Chicago, Indianapolis and Cincinnati, plus Nashville. - **When:** Saturday or Sunday morning, November 14 and 15. - **What:** Lows of 32 or colder in places that had not officially recorded one through Saturday. Of our 81 model runs, 70% show it for Indianapolis, 65% for Cincinnati and 63% each for Chicago and Nashville. - **What it means:** Time to plan for your garden, hoses and outdoor plants this week. This outlook measures the odds of reaching 32 or colder, not hard-freeze thresholds. - **How sure:** The cold pattern is the likely call. The exact low on a given morning is still a week out. ![First freeze, finally (graphic by the Ryan Hall, Y'all newsroom)](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-08-news-newsroom-77983773-0-1304.png) The first freeze of the fall is increasingly likely for Chicago, Indianapolis and Nashville on Saturday or Sunday morning, November 14 and 15. Cincinnati also has a 65% chance of reaching 32 or colder next weekend, but it read 32 at 4:52 AM Sunday and that may become its first freeze if the official climate report confirms it. St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha are closer to even odds. ## Where a freeze is most likely We counted how many of 81 model runs drop each city to 32 or colder on either morning next weekend. Higher percentages mean more runs agree. They are odds, not temperatures. Indianapolis leads at 70%, then Cincinnati at 65%, and Chicago and Nashville at 63%. Those are roughly two out of three runs, which is a good lean but not a lock. Outside the leading four, the odds drop. St. Louis is at 47%, Kansas City 46% and Omaha 44%. Detroit is at 42%, Louisville 41% and Buffalo 20%. Down south, Atlanta is at 5%, Birmingham 2% and Mobile 0%. The highest odds next weekend are centered on the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with Nashville also at 63%. ## Who has frozen and who is still waiting Several big cities have yet to freeze this fall. Chicago's O'Hare Airport bottomed out at 33 on Saturday and was at 40 this morning. Omaha hit 33 on Saturday and was also at 40 this morning. Kansas City's low so far is 35, and it was at 40 this morning. Others have come close. Indianapolis and Columbus read 33 this morning, and Detroit read 34. St. Louis, Buffalo and Cleveland have bottomed out at 34, and Louisville at 36. Cincinnati read 32 at 4:52 this morning. That would be its first freeze if the official climate report agrees. We will treat its first freeze as unconfirmed until then. Some cities to the north and west are already done. Minneapolis froze on Friday, and Milwaukee and Des Moines froze on Saturday. Pockets south of Indianapolis got colder this morning. A freeze warning for south central Indiana and parts of Kentucky warned of sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/. So the cold air is already close. ## Why it turns colder next weekend A sharp dip in the jet stream is set to dig across the Midwest and Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday. It helps spin up a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic and New England. That storm is expected to bring rain to the East and snow to higher terrain in the interior Northeast, including the Adirondacks and the mountains of northern New England. Behind it, northwest winds pull colder air south, and lake-effect rain and snow showers can develop downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. You can follow the snow side on our [winter storm outlook](/winter). The big pattern looks solid. The details are less certain. ## What to do You do not need to rush. Use the early week to get ready, then check back midweek when the forecast sharpens. - **Plants:** Bring in tender potted plants and houseplants that spent the summer outside. Have sheets or frost cloth ready for late vegetables and fall flowers. - **Hoses and spigots:** Disconnect outdoor hoses and cover or shut off exposed spigots. Drain irrigation lines if you have them. - **Pets and animals:** Plan to bring outdoor pets in and check their water bowls. - **Heat:** If you have not run your furnace yet, test it now, not on a freezing weekend morning. For updates, you can check our [active warnings page](/warnings) or sign up for free [Y'all Alerts](/alerts). ## Bottom line Roughly two out of three model runs show a freeze next weekend for Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Nashville. For Chicago, Indianapolis and Nashville, it would be the first this fall; Cincinnati's 32-degree reading Sunday is awaiting confirmation. Get the garden and hoses ready this week, and expect the picture to get clearer by midweek. Explained: [What a Freeze Warning means, and how it differs from a Frost Advisory](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/what-a-freeze-warning-frost-advisory-and-hard-freeze-mean) First freeze tracker, every big city: https://ryanhallyall.com/trackers/first-freeze More on: [First freeze 2026](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/first-freeze-2026) Places in this story: Indianapolis, IN; Cincinnati, OH; Chicago, IL; Nashville, TN; St. Louis, MO; Kansas City, MO; Omaha, NE; Detroit, MI; Louisville, KY; Buffalo, NY; Atlanta, GA; Birmingham, AL ## Sources - ECMWF ensemble, 00Z run Nov 8, ECMWF - GEFS ensemble, 06Z run Nov 8, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction - [NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS station records](https://www.rcc-acis.org/), NOAA Regional Climate Centers (ACIS) - Iowa Environmental Mesonet observations, Iowa Environmental Mesonet (Iowa State University) --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/first-freeze-looks-likely-next-weekend-in-chicago-indianapolis-nashville From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.