# Lower 48 has its warmest January-October on record, 18 states at the top Published November 11, 2026, 6:31 AM ET ยท Updated November 11, 2026, 9:02 AM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from National Weather Service data. The contiguous U.S. averaged 59.19 degrees from January through October 2026, its warmest start to a year in 132 years of records and 4.22 degrees above the 20th-century average. Eighteen states, from California and Arizona to Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee, set their own records for those ten months. The numbers are preliminary, and with November and December still ahead, 2026 is not yet the warmest year on record. **What's new:** Refreshed the storm details for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys today and the weekend snow outlook; dropped older Appalachian snow-level and low-pressure details. ## Key points - **Where:** The whole Lower 48, with 18 states at their warmest on record, including Texas, California, Kentucky and Tennessee. - **When:** January through October 2026, in records that go back to 1895. - **What:** An average of 59.19 degrees, 4.22 degrees above the 20th-century average. The old record was 58.34 degrees, set in 2012. - **What it means:** This is a ten-month story, not a one-week story. The numbers are preliminary, and November and December are still ahead. ![Newsroom graphic (graphic by the Ryan Hall, Y'all newsroom)](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-11-news-newsroom-kit-71e0341db2-1147.png) The contiguous U.S. just had its warmest January through October in 132 years of records, averaging 59.19 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 4.22 degrees above the 20th-century average. Eighteen states set their own records for those ten months, from California and Arizona across Texas and Oklahoma to Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. NOAA's numbers are preliminary, and with two months left, 2026 is not yet the warmest year on record. ## How big the record is This one beats the old mark, and it isn't close to a tie. The 2012 stretch averaged 58.34 degrees, so 2026 is 0.85 degrees warmer. Third place went to 2024 at 58.25 degrees, and 2016 came in at 57.79 degrees. {{CHART}} October helped, but it did not do all the work. The month averaged 58.71 degrees, 4.61 degrees above average, which makes it the fourth-warmest October on record. Only 1963 (59.34), 2024 (58.93) and 1947 (58.80) were warmer. Rain was close to normal, with the Lower 48 averaging 2.35 inches, about 109 percent of average. So this is a warmth story, not a rain story. ## Which states set records Eighteen states ranked 132nd out of 132, meaning their warmest January-October in the 132-year record: - **West and Mountain West:** California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Montana. - **Plains and Texas:** Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. - **Mississippi Valley and Mid-South:** Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Four more states landed in second place: Georgia, Louisiana, Oregon and South Dakota. The record states stretch from the Pacific Coast to the Appalachians, so this was not one region having a strange year. ## What the weather is doing this week A record warm year-to-date does not mean every day is warm. Our [winter storm outlook](/winter) has a Marginal risk of winter weather impacts today across the upper Great Lakes. On Thursday, Nov. 12, that Marginal risk covers parts of the upper Great Lakes and the interior Northeast. On Friday, Nov. 13, it covers the upper Great Lakes, Northeast terrain and the central Appalachians. By Saturday, Nov. 14, that eastern snow fades to minor lake-effect snow and light upslope snow in the central Appalachians. The next round of mountain snow arrives in the West that day, across Utah, Colorado and the northern mountains of New Mexico and Arizona. There is also a Level 1 of 5 (Marginal Risk) for severe storms today across Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and eastern Illinois. That area covers about 9.7 million people, including Indianapolis, Louisville and Nashville. Storms should start in eastern Illinois around midday to mid-afternoon Central time, then spread east through the afternoon and evening. A few could bring quarter-size hail or gusts of 60 mph or more, and an isolated tornado is possible, with the odds around 2 percent. The limiting factor is limited moisture near the ground, which should keep this a low-end day. Our [severe storm outlook](/severe) has the latest. No severe storms or flash flooding are outlined for Thursday or Friday. ## What to do - **In the Ohio and Tennessee valleys:** Keep an eye on the sky this afternoon and evening, and make sure your phone alerts are on. You can get free [Y'all Alerts](/alerts) for warnings in your area. - **In the Great Lakes and Appalachians:** Allow a little extra time on higher roads Thursday and Friday if snow showers move in. - **Everywhere else:** Nothing to do about the record itself. Cold days this week will not erase a ten-month average, and the final ranking for 2026 will not be known until after December. ## Bottom line Through October, 2026 is the warmest start to a year the Lower 48 has recorded, and 18 states set their own records. These are preliminary numbers, so the final ranking for the full year waits on November and December. ## The numbers ### Warmest January-October periods, Lower 48 | | Value | Note | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 | 59.19 degrees F | Record, preliminary | | 2012 | 58.34 degrees F | Old record | | 2024 | 58.25 degrees F | Third place | | 2016 | 57.79 degrees F | | Source: NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, preliminary More on: [Weather records, January 2026](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/records-january-2026) Places in this story: Louisville, KY; Nashville, TN ## Sources - [NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, national time series 110/tavg/10/10, preliminary](https://ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information - [NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, national time series 110/tavg/1/10, preliminary](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/lower-48-has-its-warmest-january-october-on-record-18-states-at-the-top From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.