# Ohio Winter Outlook: Warmer, Less Snow, Later First Measurable Snow for Most

Published November 9, 2026, 2:33 PM ET  
By Ryan Hall, Y'all  
Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video.

Ryan expects Ohio to run warmer than normal this winter, with about 20% less snow than normal for most of the state. A strong El Nino is the main driver. Most of Ohio should see its first measurable snow later than usual, though Toledo, Cleveland and Youngstown should be near normal. A breakdown of the polar vortex is the wild card that could bring cold air south in December.

## Key points

- A warm start already. Ryan points out that Ohio just had one of its warmest Octobers ever. Cincinnati had its seventh warmest October in more than 150 years of records, and Toledo and Dayton both landed in the top 10. When he recorded the video, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo and Cleveland had not hit 32 yet.
- El Nino is the driver. He says the El Nino in the Pacific just tied its warmest weekly reading on record. A strong one pulls the storm track toward Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. It also sends mild Pacific air across the Great Lakes. Ryan stresses it won't be warm all winter, and Ohio will still get cold snaps and snow.
- A later first snow. For Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati and most of the state, he expects the first measurable snow a few days to a week or two later than normal. His call is after Thanksgiving for Columbus and early December for Dayton and Cincinnati. For Toledo, Cleveland and Youngstown, he has the first snow right around normal.
- No white Christmas bet. In the eight strongest El Nino winters on record, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati never had a white Christmas. Ryan says that doesn't mean it can't happen, but "I wouldn't bet on it."
- Less snow, with a caveat. Ryan's map has most of Ohio near 20% below normal snowfall. Western Ohio from Dayton to Lima takes the biggest cut at about 25%. Southeastern and south-central Ohio around Marietta and Portsmouth gets only about 10% less. He says some spots could end up 40% below normal, and he reminds viewers that Columbus saw 50 inches in the 2009 El Nino winter.

![Thumbnail of Ryan Hall's video: The Winter Forecast Has Changed For Ohio...](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-09-news-video-nfc0Nj-VDd8-1845.png)

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfc0Nj_VDd8

Ryan Hall says Ohio's winter will look very different from last year's cold one, which was also snowier than normal in Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati. He expects warmer weather, less snow than normal in every corner of the state, and a later first snow for most cities. The one big caution is a polar vortex breakdown that could still send cold air south in December.

## What Ryan covered

- **A warm start already.** Ryan points out that Ohio just had one of its warmest Octobers ever. Cincinnati had its seventh warmest October in more than 150 years of records, and Toledo and Dayton both landed in the top 10. When he recorded the video, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo and Cleveland had not hit 32 yet.
- **El Nino is the driver.** He says the El Nino in the Pacific just tied its warmest weekly reading on record. A strong one pulls the storm track toward Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. It also sends mild Pacific air across the Great Lakes. Ryan stresses it won't be warm all winter, and Ohio will still get cold snaps and snow.
- **A later first snow.** For Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati and most of the state, he expects the first measurable snow a few days to a week or two later than normal. His call is after Thanksgiving for Columbus and early December for Dayton and Cincinnati. For Toledo, Cleveland and Youngstown, he has the first snow right around normal.
- **No white Christmas bet.** In the eight strongest El Nino winters on record, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati never had a white Christmas. Ryan says that doesn't mean it can't happen, but "I wouldn't bet on it."
- **Less snow, with a caveat.** Ryan's map has most of Ohio near 20% below normal snowfall. Western Ohio from Dayton to Lima takes the biggest cut at about 25%. Southeastern and south-central Ohio around Marietta and Portsmouth gets only about 10% less. He says some spots could end up 40% below normal, and he reminds viewers that Columbus saw 50 inches in the 2009 El Nino winter.

## The numbers behind it

Ryan says the seasonal models he looks at have Ohio about 2 degrees warmer than normal for December through February. He notes that two degrees matters when you spend half the winter near freezing, because it can be the difference between snow and cold rain. He also does not expect a dry winter, just more rain mixed in.

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Ryan says the official winter outlook agrees. Every part of Ohio is favored to run warmer than normal. Northern Ohio from Toledo to Cleveland to Youngstown has the warmest odds on the entire map, and no spot in the lower 48 has better odds of a warm winter.

## What the weather is doing now

Our [winter storm outlook](/winter) shows no significant winter weather in the lower 48 through Wednesday. Cleveland's normal first-snow date is today, and Ryan said when he recorded the video that no snow was in the forecast through then.

A change is coming later this week. A trough digs across the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday night, with colder air behind it. Colder air crossing the lower Great Lakes should bring scattered lake-effect rain and snow showers. Wet snow is expected on higher terrain in West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. Confidence is moderate on the details. A cold, dry air mass then settles over much of the country from the weekend into early next week. Ryan's call for Ohio is about the whole winter, not one cold shot. You can follow [snow forecasts](/snow) as the week goes on.

## The wild card

Ryan says the polar vortex is breaking down. The air over the North Pole is warming and the winds holding the cold in place are slowing, which almost never happens in November. When it does, it can knock cold air loose and send it south for weeks, sometimes months. The next few weeks still lean warmer than usual around the Great Lakes, so he says any cold would likely be a December story. He wasn't counting on this when he made his original forecast, and he says it "could screw it all up." If the cold does reach Ohio, the lake snow belts would feel it first, and the first-snow dates and snow totals could change or go up in a hurry.

Watch Ryan's full video above for the city-by-city numbers and his reasoning.

## The numbers

### Ryan's Ohio snowfall forecast for winter vs. a normal winter

| Area | Ryan's forecast | Normal |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Columbus | 20 to 24 inches | around 28 inches |
| Cincinnati and Dayton | high teens | Cincinnati around 20 inches |
| Southeast Ohio (Portsmouth, Athens, Marietta) | right around 20 inches | Portsmouth around 20 inches |
| Toledo | around 2 and 1/2 ft | a little over 3 ft |
| Cleveland and Akron | around three and a half feet | Akron usually over 4 ft |
| Snow belt east of Cleveland | around 7 ft | above 9 ft |

Source: Ryan Hall Y'all winter forecast for Ohio

First snow tracker, every big city: https://ryanhallyall.com/trackers/first-snow

More on: [First snow 2026-27](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/first-snow-2026-27)

Places in this story: Dayton, OH; Cincinnati, OH; Toledo, OH; Cleveland, OH

## Sources

- [Ryan Hall Xtra video: The Winter Forecast Has Changed For Ohio](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfc0Nj_VDd8), Ryan Hall Xtra, issued November 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

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Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/ohio-winter-outlook-warmer-less-snow-later-first-measurable-snow-for-most
From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.