# Record El Niño doesn't guarantee a wet California winter, Ryan warns Published November 8, 2026, 2:16 PM ET · Updated November 8, 2026, 9:16 PM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video. Ryan Hall Xtra says this El Niño just set the strongest reading ever measured, and Los Angeles was wetter than normal in seven of the eight strongest El Niño winters. But the 2015 El Niño was every bit as strong as the one in 1998 and left LA with under 7 inches. Meanwhile, coastal flooding and big surf are hitting California beaches through Tuesday, and a stronger Pacific storm is lined up for the Northwest by Saturday. **What's new:** Rewritten around Ryan's warning that 2015 shows a record El Niño is no guarantee; coastal alerts and the Saturday Northwest outlook refreshed. ## Key points - Ryan says the last El Niño that came close, in 2015, had California forecast for "a big wet winter." Los Angeles ended up with about half its normal rain. - Ryan says this fall is "a little backwards." Since October 1, San Diego has had about three times its normal rain and Los Angeles about double, while Sacramento has had only about a third. San Diego's October was also its second warmest on record. - Ryan explains that a strong El Niño stretches the jet stream across the Pacific and drags it farther south, pointing storms at California. On his map, Los Angeles and Sacramento both sit in what he calls the "storm door." The big rain makers are atmospheric rivers, long skinny plumes of moisture. Some of the biggest are called the Pineapple Express, and one parked over California for a couple of d - Ryan walks through the history. Of the eight strongest El Niño winters, Los Angeles came in wetter than normal in seven. In 1982 and 1997 it got more than double its normal rain, and February 1998 is still the wettest February on record in downtown Los Angeles. - Ryan then turns to 2015, an El Niño "every bit as strong" as the one in 1998. Los Angeles got less than 7 inches that season. The storms kept getting nudged north, and Oregon and Washington got record rain instead. He credits some of that to the Indian Ocean on the other side of the world, and some to plain luck. ![Thumbnail of Ryan Hall's video: California Hasn't Seen An El Niño Like THIS...](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-08-news-video-az5ddA9Clf4-1847.png) Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az5ddA9Clf4 Ryan Hall Xtra says the El Niño in the Pacific just put up the strongest reading ever measured, and he cautions that a record reading does not lock in a wet winter for California. It matters now because the fall rain has been lopsided, with Southern California well ahead of normal and the Sacramento area well behind. ## What Ryan covered - Ryan says the last El Niño that came close, in 2015, had California forecast for "a big wet winter." Los Angeles ended up with about half its normal rain. - Ryan says this fall is "a little backwards." Since October 1, San Diego has had about three times its normal rain and Los Angeles about double, while Sacramento has had only about a third. San Diego's October was also its second warmest on record. - Ryan explains that a strong El Niño stretches the jet stream across the Pacific and drags it farther south, pointing storms at California. On his map, Los Angeles and Sacramento both sit in what he calls the "storm door." The big rain makers are atmospheric rivers, long skinny plumes of moisture. Some of the biggest are called the Pineapple Express, and one parked over California for a couple of days can bring feet of snow to the Sierra and flooding below. - Ryan walks through the history. Of the eight strongest El Niño winters, Los Angeles came in wetter than normal in seven. In 1982 and 1997 it got more than double its normal rain, and February 1998 is still the wettest February on record in downtown Los Angeles. - Ryan then turns to 2015, an El Niño "every bit as strong" as the one in 1998. Los Angeles got less than 7 inches that season. The storms kept getting nudged north, and Oregon and Washington got record rain instead. He credits some of that to the Indian Ocean on the other side of the world, and some to plain luck. ## Why the warning matters Ryan says "most of the time, yeah," a big El Niño means a wet winter in Los Angeles. The catch is that the odds lean wet without promising it. Where the storms track can matter as much as how strong the El Niño is. The transcript we have cuts off before Ryan gives his final call on rain totals and Sierra snow, so we are not putting numbers on his winter forecast. The history Ryan cites leans wetter than normal for Los Angeles, but it is not a sure thing. ## What the official data shows this week Our [winter storm outlook](/winter) has a stronger system moving toward the Pacific Northwest and Northern California by Saturday, November 14, with widespread mountain snow in the Cascades and Northern Rockies. That is nearly a week out, so treat the details as early. It is one storm, not a seasonal call. Closer in, coastal flood advisories and high surf are active now: - **San Diego County coast:** minor to locally moderate coastal flooding through noon PST Tuesday, with surf of 3 to 7 feet on west-facing beaches. - **Los Angeles County beaches and the Malibu Coast:** minor to locally moderate flooding at morning high tides through noon PST Tuesday, with surf of 4 to 6 feet. - **Ventura County beaches:** waves of 5 to 7 feet, peaking at 6 to 9 feet Monday. - **San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara County central coast:** breaking waves of 10 to 16 feet with dangerous rip currents through noon PST Tuesday. - **San Francisco and the Pacific Coast:** breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet, sneaker waves and strong rip currents through Monday evening. Bayshore areas could see up to 1.6 feet of water over low-lying ground until 4 PM PST Friday. If you're headed to the beach, stay off jetties and rocks, and don't turn your back on the water. Check the live [warnings page](/warnings) for your stretch of coast, and sign up for free [Y'all Alerts](/alerts) so winter storms reach your phone. Watch Ryan's full video above to see how he lays out 1997 against 2015. More on: [Weather records, November 2026](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/records-november-2026) Places in this story: Los Angeles, CA; San Diego, CA; Sacramento, CA; San Francisco, CA ## Sources - [Ryan Hall Xtra video: California Hasn't Seen An El Niño Like THIS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az5ddA9Clf4), Ryan Hall Xtra, issued November 8, 2026, 1:47 PM ET --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/record-el-nio-has-californias-winter-in-play-but-2015-shows-its-no-promise From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.