# Ryan calls for more snow than normal across most of North Carolina this winter Published November 9, 2026, 2:31 PM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video. In a new video, Ryan says no spot in North Carolina comes in below normal on his snow map this winter, with the biggest boosts in the mountains and along the coast. A record-strong El Nino is the driver, but he's clear it tilts the odds and doesn't promise snow. Nothing wintry is in our outlook for the state this week. ## Key points - The map. Ryan points out that not one spot in North Carolina comes in below normal. Most of the state is 20% more snow than normal or better. New Bern, Elizabeth City and the Outer Banks are in his top band at 30% more. The High Country around Boone, Beech Mountain and Banner Elk is at 25% more. - The driver. An El Nino that just set the highest weekly reading on record pulls the jet stream south. Many of those storms turn up the East Coast right at the Carolinas. In the eight strongest El Nino winters, Wilmington and Elizabeth City were wetter than normal every time. - The numbers. Ryan's ranges are Charlotte 3 to 6 inches, Raleigh 4 to 6, Greensboro 6 to 10 and Asheville 13 to 21. Mount Mitchell's two snowiest winters on record, including 176 inches in 1997-98, were both strong El Nino years. - The honest catch. Raleigh got 1.4 inches in 2015-16, and in 1991-92 Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh got none. Ryan puts it this way: "El Nino tilts the odds towards more snow in North Carolina, but it does not promise it." - Timing and Christmas. The first measurable snow should land near normal in the Piedmont, but up to a week late in the high country and coastal plain. Ryan says a white Christmas is possible up high, but "down in the cities, I would not count on it." ![Thumbnail of Ryan Hall's video: North Carolina's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different...](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-09-news-video-dSm4FUN4960-1759.png) Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSm4FUN4960 # Ryan calls for more snow than normal across North Carolina this winter Ryan's new winter forecast for North Carolina leans snowier than normal from the mountains to the Outer Banks. No state east of the Mississippi lights up more on his snow map, and he says the state is also due for a wet winter. Nothing wintry is in our outlook for North Carolina this week, so this is about the season ahead. ## What Ryan covered ![North Carolina could get more snow than normal this winter, Ryan says, from the mountains to the coast (photo by Ryan Hall, Y'all (Ryan Hall Xtra))](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-09-news-newsroom-93471930-0-1758.png "North Carolina could get more snow than normal this winter, Ryan says, from the mountains . Issued 12:58 PM ET Monday. Ryan Hall, Y'all") Photo: Ryan Hall, Y'all (Ryan Hall Xtra) - **The map.** Ryan points out that not one spot in North Carolina comes in below normal. Most of the state is 20% more snow than normal or better. New Bern, Elizabeth City and the Outer Banks are in his top band at 30% more. The High Country around Boone, Beech Mountain and Banner Elk is at 25% more. - **The driver.** An El Nino that just set the highest weekly reading on record pulls the jet stream south. Many of those storms turn up the East Coast right at the Carolinas. In the eight strongest El Nino winters, Wilmington and Elizabeth City were wetter than normal every time. - **The numbers.** Ryan's ranges are Charlotte 3 to 6 inches, Raleigh 4 to 6, Greensboro 6 to 10 and Asheville 13 to 21. Mount Mitchell's two snowiest winters on record, including 176 inches in 1997-98, were both strong El Nino years. - **The honest catch.** Raleigh got 1.4 inches in 2015-16, and in 1991-92 Charlotte, Greensboro and Raleigh got none. Ryan puts it this way: "El Nino tilts the odds towards more snow in North Carolina, but it does not promise it." - **Timing and Christmas.** The first measurable snow should land near normal in the Piedmont, but up to a week late in the high country and coastal plain. Ryan says a white Christmas is possible up high, but "down in the cities, I would not count on it." ## Ice is the bigger worry Ryan says what falls matters more than the totals. Last January, an ice storm put about half an inch of ice on everything from Hendersonville to Concord and east, and Davie County measured more than 3 inches of sleet. A week later Charlotte got 11 inches of snow in one day and New Bern got 13 inches, its most ever in a day. With more storms running up the coast, he expects the state to sit on the rain, snow and ice line a lot. He also is watching a weak polar vortex that is about to reverse. For now he doesn't expect a big impact on North Carolina, though next week runs a little cooler. ## Drought and the data behind it The wet pattern would help. As of the Nov. 3 Drought Monitor, 71% of North Carolina is in drought, up from about half the state two weeks earlier. Every new seasonal model has the state wetter than normal this winter, with temperatures near normal and a little cooler by February. Ryan says it won't be a bitter cold winter, but "it's going to be a wet one." Asheville still hasn't hit 32 degrees, though its first freeze usually comes around Oct. 22. Check our [winter storm outlook](/winter) for any real threat and our [snow forecasts](/snow) as storms line up. You can get free [Y'all Alerts](/alerts) too. Ryan has town-by-town snow ranges at yallsnow.com. Watch Ryan's full video above for his whole North Carolina winter call, including where he sees snow, sleet or cold rain deciding the season. ## The numbers ### Ryan's snow ranges for this winter | City | Ryan's range | Normal winter snow | | --- | --- | --- | | Charlotte | 3 to 6 | about 3 | | Raleigh | 4 to 6 | 4 to 5 | | Greensboro | 6 to 10 | 5 to 7 | | Asheville | 13 to 21 | about 11 | Source: Ryan Hall, Y'all snow map (yallsnow.com) and NOAA station records, as presented in Ryan's video More on: [Southeast winter weather, November 2026](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/southeast-winter-weather-november-2026) Places in this story: Charlotte, NC; Asheville, NC ## Sources - [Ryan Hall Xtra video: North Carolina's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSm4FUN4960), Ryan Hall Xtra, issued November 9, 2026, 12:59 PM ET - [NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS station records](https://www.rcc-acis.org/), NOAA Regional Climate Centers (ACIS) --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/ryan-calls-for-more-snow-than-normal-across-most-of-north-carolina-this-winter From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.