# Ryan: Early polar vortex flip looks short and weak, most cold to miss the US Published November 12, 2026, 11:17 AM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from National Weather Service data. Ryan Hall says the record-early polar vortex flip looks short and weak, with its cold center moving toward Iceland and Scandinavia instead of the United States. The cold this week is an ordinary November cold front, and any real effect from the flip would be weeks away. Our winter outlook for Sunday, Nov. 15, through Wednesday, Nov. 18, shows snow in the western mountains and mostly dry weather in the central and eastern US. ## Key points - Ryan points out that when he first brought this up, about 43 of the 50 European model runs showed the flip. Now every one of them does, so the flip itself is certain. - Ryan says the flip looks short and weak. The American model has the winds around the vortex running backward for only a couple of days, at about 10 miles an hour. Every European run that flips them backward flips them forward again within a few days. - Ryan says the vortex is also being stretched out of shape, and he thinks any major cold displacement is more likely "on the other side of the world." - Ryan is clear that the cold coming this week "has absolutely nothing to do with the polar vortex." In his words, it's just a normal November cold front. - Ryan says what happens after the flip is "still a big question." He thinks most of the cold impacts will avoid the United States. ![A frame from Ryan Hall's stream: Ryan's read on the record-early polar vortex flip: short, weak, and its cold leaning away from the US](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-12-news-clip-30722367-1-1604.png) Ryan says the record-early polar vortex flip looks short and weak, with the American model reversing the winds for only a couple of days at about 10 mph, and that the heart of the vortex is moving toward Iceland and Scandinavia, away from the United States. He expects most of the cold impacts to miss the United States, and says any change to our weather would show up weeks from now, not this week. That matters because "polar vortex" headlines tend to get blamed on every cold front. ## What Ryan covered - Ryan points out that when he first brought this up, about 43 of the 50 European model runs showed the flip. Now every one of them does, so the flip itself is certain. - Ryan says the flip looks short and weak. The American model has the winds around the vortex running backward for only a couple of days, at about 10 miles an hour. Every European run that flips them backward flips them forward again within a few days. - Ryan says the vortex is also being stretched out of shape, and he thinks any major cold displacement is more likely "on the other side of the world." - Ryan is clear that the cold coming this week "has absolutely nothing to do with the polar vortex." In his words, it's just a normal November cold front. - Ryan says what happens after the flip is "still a big question." He thinks most of the cold impacts will avoid the United States. For context, in a video earlier this week Ryan noted that records back to 1959 show no flip before Nov. 28, so this one is about two weeks ahead of anything on record. ## What our winter outlook shows Our outlook for Sunday, Nov. 15, through Wednesday, Nov. 18, fits Ryan's read. Pacific storm systems bring rounds of mountain snow to the Cascades, the northern Sierra Nevada and the northern Rockies Sunday and Monday. The snow then moves into Utah, Wyoming and Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday. High passes in the West could get hazardous travel. The central and eastern US look largely dry, with only light lake-effect snow behind this week's front and limited winter weather impacts. Confidence in the western snow is high. Timing of the individual disturbances still shifts a bit from run to run. Today's cold is the ordinary kind. Winter weather advisories are up for higher elevations of Baraga and Marquette counties in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, where 3 to 8 inches of lake-effect snow is possible (up to 10 in spots), and for the mountains of northern New York and Vermont. You can check [our snow forecasts](/snow), the [winter storm outlook](/winter) and [every active warning](/warnings). Ryan walks through the model runs and his reasoning in the clip above. Explained: [Lake-effect snow: what it is, why it falls in bands, and what the alerts mean](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/what-lake-effect-snow-is) More on: [November 2026 weather](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/november-2026-weather) ## Sources - [From Ryan's stream: Ryan's read on the record-early polar vortex flip: short, weak, and its cold leaning away from the US](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5jnz4mVc0A), Ryan Hall, Y'all, issued November 12, 2026, 11:04 AM ET --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/ryan-early-polar-vortex-flip-looks-short-and-weak-most-cold-to-miss-the-us From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.