# Ryan leans toward a milder December with cold shots, not a big Arctic blast Published November 12, 2026, 11:32 AM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from National Weather Service data. Ryan leans toward a December with mild stretches and an occasional cold shot across much of the country, rather than a big blast of Arctic air over the middle of the U.S. The official long-range outlook, when he posted this, favored warmer than normal across the northern U.S. through early December, with Texas and the Four Corners cooler. A second scenario, where the polar vortex disruption sends cold air south, is still possible but less likely, and it could take up to six weeks to show. ## Key points - Scenario one, the Pacific stays in charge. Ryan points out that the jet stream keeps hitting the West Coast and pumping mild air across the rest of the country. The vortex flips for a few days, then spins back up. - Scenario two, the disruption works down to us. Ryan says it can help build a big blocking high pressure near Greenland and the Arctic. A vortex stretched out like this one can then swing a big lobe of cold air over the middle of the country. - The storm risk in that second scenario. If that cold lines up with the stormy pattern El Niño and the Pacific jet have set up, Ryan says, the country could see a pretty significant storm. He stresses he is not saying it will happen. It is just one scenario. - Why he picks the first. Ryan says this flip looks short and weak, and the heart of the vortex is heading toward Russia. ![A frame from Ryan Hall's stream: Two ways December could go after the polar vortex flip, and the one Ryan leaned toward](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-12-news-clip-50171824-1-1604.png) Much of the country is more likely to see mild stretches into early December, with a cold shot here and there, than a big plunge of Arctic air over the middle of the U.S. That is the scenario Ryan leans toward after the polar vortex flip. It matters now because the other path is still on the table, and it could take up to six weeks to play out. ## What Ryan covered - **Scenario one, the Pacific stays in charge.** Ryan points out that the jet stream keeps hitting the West Coast and pumping mild air across the rest of the country. The vortex flips for a few days, then spins back up. - **Scenario two, the disruption works down to us.** Ryan says it can help build a big blocking high pressure near Greenland and the Arctic. A vortex stretched out like this one can then swing a big lobe of cold air over the middle of the country. - **The storm risk in that second scenario.** If that cold lines up with the stormy pattern El Niño and the Pacific jet have set up, Ryan says, the country could see a pretty significant storm. He stresses he is not saying it will happen. It is just one scenario. - **Why he picks the first.** Ryan says this flip looks short and weak, and the heart of the vortex is heading toward Russia. ## What the official outlooks show When Ryan posted this on Monday, Nov. 9, the official long-range outlook leaned toward scenario one. It showed warmer than normal across the northern part of the country through early December, with Texas and the Four Corners running cooler. Our own [winter storm outlook](/winter) for the next week fits that picture. An active Pacific jet sends rounds of mountain snow across the West from Sunday, Nov. 15, into Wednesday, Nov. 18. That includes the Cascades, the Sierra Nevada, the northern Rockies, the Wasatch and the ranges of Wyoming and Colorado. Farther east, high pressure and a ridge keep things largely dry, with little winter weather expected across the central and eastern U.S. You can follow where the snow lands on our [snow forecasts](/snow) page. How sure is this? The central and eastern U.S. look largely dry over the next week, while rounds of mountain snow cross the West. December as a whole is much less certain, since a vortex disruption can take up to six weeks to show its hand. For plans into early December, the milder scenario is the one Ryan favors, but a stronger cold push could still show up later. Hear Ryan walk through both scenarios in the clip above. More on: [South Texas cold, November 2026](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/south-texas-cold-november-2026) Places in this story: Four Corners, TX ## Sources - [From Ryan's stream: Two ways December could go after the polar vortex flip, and the one Ryan leaned toward](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5jnz4mVc0A), Ryan Hall, Y'all, issued November 12, 2026, 11:04 AM ET --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/ryan-leans-toward-a-milder-december-with-cold-shots-not-a-big-arctic-blast From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.