# Ryan's Tennessee winter call: normal to more snow, with ice a risk Published November 9, 2026, 2:32 PM ET By Ryan Hall, Y'all Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video. Ryan expects Tennessee to get near-normal to somewhat above-normal snow this winter, with the biggest bump from Knoxville and the Smokies up to the Tri-Cities. A wetter-than-normal pattern and two consecutive record weekly El Niño readings raise the odds of both snow and ice. A possible polar vortex disruption could push totals higher. ## Key points - A warm fall so far. Ryan points out that Memphis just had its second warmest October since records began in 1875, and Nashville's October landed in its top 10. Nashville and Knoxville normally hit their first freeze around November 2nd, and neither had as of Ryan's forecast. - Record weekly El Niño readings. He says it hit its strongest weekly reading on record two weeks in a row, which shoves storms further south and puts Tennessee on the north side of the "winter storm battleground." The six seasonal models he checked keep Tennessee near normal on temperature and wetter than normal by almost 20%, and all six have December wetter than normal. - First snow, a little late for some. A measurable snow (a tenth of an inch or more) normally shows up in early December in the Tri-Cities, around New Year's in Nashville, and in January in Knoxville, Memphis and Chattanooga. Ryan has Clarksville, Nashville, the plateau, Johnson City and Bristol a few days to a week later than normal, which pushes Nashville into the first week or so of January. Memp - The snow map. West and middle Tennessee get 5 to 10% more than normal. Knoxville gets 15% more, and the Smokies up into the Tri-Cities get about 20% more. Chattanooga and Clarksville stay near normal. - Snow or ice. Nashville got less than an inch and a half of snow last winter, then took close to 3/4 of an inch of ice in January that left about 230,000 Nashville Electric customers without power. Ryan notes that more chances at snow also means more chances at ice. ![Thumbnail of Ryan Hall's video: Tennessee's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different...](https://public.yallsoft.app/rhy/blog/images/2026-11-09-news-video-f2nM-JcPd5o-1842.png) Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2nM-JcPd5o Ryan says Tennessee is headed against the national trend this winter. While much of the country, from Chicago to Detroit and across Ohio, looks to get less snow than normal, his map has every Tennessee town at about normal or better, and East Tennessee up to 20% above normal. The big question for the state is whether the storms bring snow or ice. ## What Ryan covered - **A warm fall so far.** Ryan points out that Memphis just had its second warmest October since records began in 1875, and Nashville's October landed in its top 10. Nashville and Knoxville normally hit their first freeze around November 2nd, and neither had as of Ryan's forecast. - **Record weekly El Niño readings.** He says it hit its strongest weekly reading on record two weeks in a row, which shoves storms further south and puts Tennessee on the north side of the "winter storm battleground." The six seasonal models he checked keep Tennessee near normal on temperature and wetter than normal by almost 20%, and all six have December wetter than normal. - **First snow, a little late for some.** A measurable snow (a tenth of an inch or more) normally shows up in early December in the Tri-Cities, around New Year's in Nashville, and in January in Knoxville, Memphis and Chattanooga. Ryan has Clarksville, Nashville, the plateau, Johnson City and Bristol a few days to a week later than normal, which pushes Nashville into the first week or so of January. Memphis, Chattanooga and Knoxville stay near normal. He says to plan on a green Christmas. - **The snow map.** West and middle Tennessee get 5 to 10% more than normal. Knoxville gets 15% more, and the Smokies up into the Tri-Cities get about 20% more. Chattanooga and Clarksville stay near normal. - **Snow or ice.** Nashville got less than an inch and a half of snow last winter, then took close to 3/4 of an inch of ice in January that left about 230,000 Nashville Electric customers without power. Ryan notes that more chances at snow also means more chances at ice. ## The ranges, and the wild card Ryan gives ranges because "one storm can be your whole winter" in Tennessee. He cites 18 and a half inches in one day in Chattanooga in March 1993, and 8 inches in one day in Nashville in January 2016. {{CHART:0}} The wild card is the polar vortex, the big pool of cold air near the North Pole. Ryan says its winds are down to less than 1 mph, when they normally run around 55, and many new model runs flip them backward within a week or two. If that happens, Arctic air could reach the U.S. a few weeks later, likely late November or December, just as the El Niño sends storms across the South. He did not build that into his numbers, and if it happens, he thinks Tennessee could see more snow than forecast. ## What our outlooks show right now Nothing winter-related is coming to Tennessee this week. Our [winter storm outlook](/winter) has no risk areas anywhere in the lower 48 through Wednesday. Late in the week a trough and cold front bring wet snow to the higher terrain of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, and high pressure brings a cold, dry airmass to much of the country from the weekend into early next week. You can follow how snow chances develop on our [snow forecast page](/snow). Ryan lays out all of this, including his reasoning on El Niño and the polar vortex, in the full video above. ## The numbers ### Ryan's snow ranges for this winter | City | Ryan's range | Normal winter | | --- | --- | --- | | Memphis | 2 to 4 inches | about 3 inches | | Nashville | 3 to 5 inches | about 4 or 5 inches | | Knoxville | 5 to 9 inches | about 5 inches | | Crossville | 13 to 18 inches | | | Johnson City, Kingsport to Bristol | about 14 inches to a little over 2 feet | | Source: Ryan Hall's winter snow forecast for Tennessee More on: [Southeast winter weather, November 2026](https://ryanhallyall.com/news/topic/southeast-winter-weather-november-2026) Places in this story: Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Nashville, TN; Memphis, TN; Knoxville, TN ## Sources - [Ryan Hall Xtra video: Tennessee's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2nM-JcPd5o), Ryan Hall Xtra, issued November 5, 2026, 1:42 PM ET --- Canonical: https://ryanhallyall.com/news/ryans-tennessee-winter-call-normal-to-more-snow-with-ice-a-risk From Ryan Hall, Y'all (https://ryanhallyall.com). Always follow official warnings from the National Weather Service.