Blog Article

Friday Severe Weather Outbreak: Tornadoes & Flooding Risk

An Enhanced Risk for severe weather threatens the Midwest and Plains on Friday. Get the latest on the tornado threat, flash flooding, and massive temp drops.

A Brief Breather Before Friday's Severe Weather Outbreak

Alright y'all, we need to talk about what is coming on Friday. Yesterday was a lot to handle. We saw grapefruit-sized hail in Kansas and 80 mph wind gusts up in Michigan. Today is giving most of the middle of the country a quick breather, though folks up in western and central New York into southern Vermont do have a Slight Risk for some severe storms this afternoon.

But the main thing I am watching is a potent system loading up for tomorrow. The atmosphere is not done with us yet.

Friday's Severe Weather Setup

The Storm Prediction Center has already stamped an Enhanced Risk (a level 3 out of 5) for severe weather on Friday. This covers a massive area from Oklahoma and Kansas right up through Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

Here is what is happening. A potent upper-level trough is going to eject over the Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low is going to spin up near the Missouri River on Friday morning and race northeast into Wisconsin by the afternoon. This setup is going to pull a ton of moisture north and forcefully clash with a strong cold front.

We are looking at widespread severe thunderstorms. The main threats are going to be tornadoes, and a few of them could be strong, especially in the corridor from northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin. We are also expecting very large hail and significant swaths of damaging winds as these storms grow from isolated cells into a massive, fast-moving line.

If you have tickets to see the White Sox or the Cubs play in Chicago on Friday evening, you need to pay close attention to the radar. Delays are highly likely, and you do not want to be caught out in the open when this line comes through.

Flash Flooding Potential

It is not just the wind and hail we have to worry about. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from northeast Oklahoma up into northern Illinois.

A broad footprint of 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected across this zone, with some localized spots seeing over 3 inches. Because these storms will be packing intense rainfall rates, flash flooding is a real concern. If you commute through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, be prepared for water over the roadways by Friday evening.

Fire Danger and a Massive Temperature Drop

Out ahead of this system, the wind is going to be howling. Down in the Southern High Plains, specifically the Texas and New Mexico panhandles, we have Critical fire weather conditions today and tomorrow. Gusts up to 40 mph and humidity dropping below 15 percent means any spark will spread incredibly fast. If you are setting up vendor tents for the FoodieLand festival in Dallas this weekend, make sure everything is tied down tight.

And behind this cold front? A massive temperature crash. We are talking a 25 to 30-degree drop sweeping through the Midwest. For context, Chicago usually sees a high around 59 degrees in mid-April. This front is going to bring a harsh reality check by Saturday, making it feel like we skipped backward a month.

The Bottom Line

Friday is a 'have your plan ready' kind of day from the Southern Plains all the way to the Great Lakes. Know where your safe room is, make sure your phones are charged, and have multiple ways to get warnings. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, treat it with the same respect as a tornado warning, because the straight-line winds in this system could easily knock down trees and power lines.

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