News
Ryan Hall, Y'all News
Weather news from Ryan Hall, Y'all: severe weather, flooding, winter storms and the tropics, plus daily forecasts and explainers, written from official data.
Latest stories
- First freeze tracker: 9 of 58 big cities in, 22 still late as of Nov 7
Nine of the 58 big cities we track have had a first freeze, and 22 are still waiting past their normal date. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Des Moines and Milwaukee got theirs in the last two days, while Grand Rapids, Omaha and Boise are in rare territory. Our new map shows where every city stands.
- Nearly 9 inches of rain near Kingsville, Texas; Flood Watch lasts into Monday
Radar estimates show nearly 9 inches of rain since midnight just west of Kingsville, and Flash Flood Warnings in South Texas run until as late as 1:30 PM Central. More heavy rain is possible tonight on ground that is already soaked, and the Flood Watch lasts through Monday morning. Stay off flooded roads, especially after dark.
- October 2026 was Earth's warmest October, third month in a row above 1.5 C
Europe's Copernicus climate service says October 2026 was the warmest October on record worldwide. It was 1.75 C above the pre-industrial average, the third straight month above 1.5 C, and Europe had its second-warmest October. The global number does not change your forecast, which today includes a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk in South Texas.
- Midwest's first freeze came historically late; Chicago, Detroit still waiting
Minneapolis, Des Moines and Fort Wayne had one of their five latest first freezes on record this week, and Cincinnati hit 31 this morning. Chicago, Detroit, Columbus, St. Louis, Omaha and Grand Rapids still haven't frozen. A colder pattern arrives late this week, but we don't have city-by-city lows for it yet.
- El Niño's October broke its own record, and Earth had its warmest October
October's reading in the Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacific came in at 3.25 C above normal, the warmest month on record there and well past September's record. Three separate datasets agree, and Copernicus has October 2026 as the warmest October on record worldwide. A record month doesn't forecast your town's weather, and South Texas has a flood risk today.
- First freeze looks likely next weekend in Chicago, Indianapolis, Nashville
Chicago, Indianapolis and Nashville have a good shot at their first 32-degree reading of the fall Saturday or Sunday morning, Nov. 14-15. Cincinnati also has a 65% chance, though a 32-degree reading Sunday may become its first freeze if confirmed. St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha are closer to even, while odds remain very low in the Deep South.
- Melbourne's 11.51 inches and Norfolk's 6.31 lead a week of November records
Melbourne, Florida, had its wettest day ever on Nov. 2, and Norfolk, Virginia, had its wettest November day on Nov. 6. Record warmth ran from the Great Lakes to North Dakota and the Pacific Northwest. South Texas is dealing with the next round of heavy rain today, with a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk and flood advisories already up.
- Eight years after the Camp Fire, it is still California's deadliest wildfire
The Camp Fire started in Butte County, California, eight years ago today and still tops CAL FIRE's lists for deaths (85) and structures destroyed (18,804). A Red Flag Warning went out two days ahead, and an update an hour before ignition called for gusts to 45 mph and up to 60 mph on ridges. The lesson for fire country is to treat that warning as a get-ready day.
- Perfect Sunday around Richmond and Newport News, Beautiful days follow
Richmond and Newport News hit the Perfect tier today, with clear skies, dry air and highs in the low 60s. Beautiful weather then spreads from Indianapolis to Atlanta and Lubbock on Monday, and to Washington, Lexington, El Paso and Tucson on Tuesday. Later in the week the best weather shifts to the southern High Plains and Texas, with lower confidence.
- Flash flood risk for South Texas today, 2 to 3 inches of rain, locally more
Heavy rain from the Rio Grande Valley to the Hill Country carries a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk through early Monday, with 2 to 3 inches likely and some spots seeing 4 to 6. Rain lingers Monday morning south of I-10 before drying out in the afternoon. Elsewhere it is a quiet Sunday, with a frosty start in the Ohio Valley, a chance of northern lights tonight, and Tropical Storm Pena staying far south of Hawaii.
- 78 mph gust in Washington and 75 mph in Montana measured Sunday morning
Mesonet stations measured a 78 mph gust near Telma, Washington, and a 75 mph gust south of Dupuyer, Montana, early Sunday. A High Wind Warning for north-central Montana runs until 8 PM MST tonight.
- Gusts past 60 mph, brief tornado possible near Corpus Christi this afternoon
A few storms in South Texas this afternoon could bring gusts past 60 mph or a brief tornado around Corpus Christi, Alice, and Falfurrias. It is a Level 1 of 5 day, so keep an eye on the sky and know where to shelter if a warning goes out. Severe storms are not expected Monday.
- Level 2 flash flood risk in south Texas Sunday, rain lingers Monday
Heavy rain builds across south and west Texas overnight, and Sunday carries a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) flash flood risk. A Flood Watch runs near Corpus Christi through Monday morning, and 1 to 2 more inches of rain are possible Monday before drier air arrives.
- South Texas flash flood risk peaks Sunday with 2 to 3 inches, locally 4 to 6
Heavy rain builds across South Texas tonight and peaks Sunday from the Hill Country to the Rio Grande Valley and the Coastal Bend, with a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk. Totals of 2 to 3 inches are likely, locally 4 to 6. Wind and mountain snow hit the Pacific Northwest tonight, and Tropical Storm Pena stays well south of Hawaii.
- Ryan Says Texas Is Set Up for a Cooler, Wetter, Snowier Winter
In a new Ryan Hall Xtra video, Ryan makes the case that a record-strength El Nino will pull the storm track across Texas this winter. He sees the Panhandle and West Texas with 30% more snow than normal. For Texas, this week is still about rain in the south, with no winter weather in the forecast.
- Big cities had yet to freeze as weekend cold approached
Chicago, Kansas City, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo had not hit 32 degrees as of Ryan's Thursday video, the latest start to freezing weather for that group since 1900. A cold push out of Canada was expected to test that streak this weekend, though some cities could still dodge it. Our outlooks show no significant winter weather for the Midwest or East through Monday.
- South Texas flood rain Sunday leads a weekend that's mostly calm and cool elsewhere
A Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk covers South and south-central Texas from Sunday morning into early Monday, with 2 to 3 inches widespread and locally 4 to 6. Most of the rest of the country is dry and cool, with the best weather in the Carolinas, the Panhandles and the Four Corners. A cold front brings gusty wind to the Washington coast tonight and snow to the Cascades.
- South Texas flood rain into Monday, then Pacific storms soak the West
Flood-risk rain in South Texas, a Level 2 of 4 on Sunday, tapers off Monday morning from west to east. From Tuesday a string of Pacific storms brings rain to the Northwest and heavy mountain snow to the Cascades and Northern Rockies. The East stays cool and mostly quiet, and no severe storms are expected from Sunday through Thursday.
- Level 2 flash flood risk for South Texas today through 6 AM Central Monday
South Texas has a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) flash flood risk through 6 AM Central Monday, with the best chance of trouble from late afternoon through early Monday between Laredo and Corpus Christi. Totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely across the region, with up to 8 inches in spots. A lighter Level 1 risk covers Monday before the rain threat fades after midday.
- Gusty storms possible on the Washington coast tonight, 60+ mph near Forks
A Level 1 of 5 (Marginal) severe risk covers the northwest Washington coast late this evening into the overnight hours, with isolated gusts of 60+ mph possible near Forks. About 9,000 people live in the zone. The rest of the country has no severe risk today.
- The Carolina Sandhills Are About to Post the Week's Best Weather Score, Right After a Tornado Warning
Sunday's high pressure building over eastern North Carolina pushes towns like Smithfield, Selma, and Fayetteville into genuine Perfect territory, just a day after tornado warnings and flash flooding rolled through some of the same counties. It is also the capstone to a 28-day Nice-or-better streak running from the Carolina Triangle down into coastal Georgia.
- Gulf Moisture Takes Aim at the Texas Hill Country: Flood Risk Builds Sunday Into Monday
WPC has posted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for south-central and southern Texas from Sunday morning through Monday morning, with the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Rio Grande Valley looking at widespread 2-3 inch rain and localized totals near 4-6 inches. Today itself stays dry and even gorgeous across much of the central Plains, but that's about to change fast as deep Gulf moisture surges north.
- Bentonville Got the Best Weather Score in America Today, and the Tropics Didn't Take the Day Off
While fans filed into the All IN Music & Arts Festival in Bentonville under a 89 out of 100 weather score, a brand new Tropical Storm Pena spun up in the Central Pacific and a weekend geomagnetic storm is stirring aurora chatter up north. Here's how a near-perfect Arkansas afternoon fits into a week that included 111 mph winds in Alaska and record river crests in Georgia.
- The San Gabriel Foothills Are Topping the Nice List Right Into a Red Flag Warning
Glendora, Covina, and Azusa are running the best mean scores of any cities in the country this week, but the same high pressure giving them sunny, dry days is about to spin up a Santa Ana wind event over their own foothills Saturday. Meanwhile the weekend's true best-weather zone keeps relocating, from a narrow Arkansas-Arizona sliver today to a wide Tennessee Valley sweep tomorrow to the Southern Plains and Southeast by Sunday.
- A Tropical System Taking Shape Near Hawaii, a Soggy New England Weekend, and a Northern Lights Shot
The National Hurricane Center has a 90 percent shot at a tropical depression forming southeast of Hawaii today, while a slow-moving system keeps southeastern New England under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall through Saturday morning. Add in a marginal severe weather threat for the Carolina coast and a chance at G1-G2 geomagnetic storming this weekend, and there's a lot to track even without any named storms on the map.
- While Everybody Argued About the Midterms, the Tropics Kept Spinning
Election news ate the headlines this week, but the tropics didn't clock out. Three separate disturbances are churning across the Atlantic and Pacific basins right as a cold front splits the Eastern Seaboard into two very different Friday stories. Here's how the quiet end of hurricane season and the loudest news cycle in months ended up sharing the same week.
- The Smokies and the Back Roads of Arizona Are Having the Best Week in the Country
While a two-coast storm pattern grabs the headlines, the real nice-weather story this week is quieter: East Tennessee's Smoky Mountain towns and a string of small Arizona desert communities are stacking Beautiful-or-better days almost every single day. Here's why, and what's keeping even the best zones just short of Perfect.
- Friday's Two-Coast Setup: A Carolina Severe Watch and a New England Soaker
Today's calm with beautiful weather stretched across the Gulf Coast, but Friday brings a cold front that sets up a Marginal severe threat for the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia, plus a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for southeastern New England. Meanwhile, north Georgia is still drying out from this week's flash flood emergency, and a couple of tropical areas in the Pacific and Atlantic bear watching, though none threaten the U.S. right now.
- Tractors to the Polls: What This Week's Floodwater Taught Us About Getting Where We Need to Go
Navajo voters crossed flood-damaged roads on tractors to cast their ballots this week, a story that traces straight back to the Four Corners flooding we've been tracking all month. Tonight that same storm track has moved east, leaving a marginal severe and flash flood risk across the Southeast as folks head to concerts, basketball games, and Tuesday night plans anyway.
- November 03, 2026 Severe Weather Recap: Overnight Tornadoes in Oklahoma, Flooding Stretches From Florida to the Desert Southwest
A squall line rolling out of the Southern Plains produced two NWS-surveyed tornadoes near Adair and Talala, Oklahoma before pushing severe storms into Arkansas and Louisiana. At the same time, flash flooding hit Broward County, Florida, river levels stayed high in New Mexico and Arizona, and parts of Nebraska picked up nearly five inches of rain.
- Today's the Ceiling: South Texas Hits 99, and Tucson's Suburbs Are Nice Every Single Day This Week
Wednesday delivers the best air of the week, with small South Texas towns like Cuero and Yoakum posting near-Perfect scores and a broad Beautiful belt from the desert Southwest to Arkansas. Zoom out and the real story is the Tucson metro, which stays Nice-or-better all seven days, while the national ceiling slides back to Nice for the rest of the week as a cooler, cloudier pattern settles over the Plains and Midwest.
- Marginal Severe Risk Lingers Over the Southeast This Morning, With a Flooding Watch in the Valleys
A slow-moving front is dragging the tail end of yesterday's severe weather into the Southeast and southern Appalachians today, with a marginal risk for isolated severe storms around Atlanta, Knoxville, and Chattanooga. Training showers could also squeeze out some flash flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, while the Southern Plains enjoys some of the best weather in the country.
- Election Day Storms: What's Rolling Through the Mid-South Tonight (and Why Florida's Still Wringing Itself Out)
Control of Congress is on the line tonight, and so is a marginal severe weather setup stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, Florida is still drying out from the flash flood emergency that dumped over a foot of rain on Palm Bay just two nights ago, with another round of heavier rain in the forecast for the southeast part of the state.
- Wednesday Is the One: South-Central Texas Hits a Genuine Perfect Score
Tuesday's best weather sits in two disconnected pockets, the desert Southwest and the Carolina Piedmont, but Wednesday is the day to actually plan around: a run of small south-central Texas towns near Victoria, Beeville, and Gonzales lands a true Perfect score, with Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Tucson all riding Beautiful conditions right alongside them. After that, the ceiling drops to Nice for most of the country through the weekend as a front pushes east.
- Front Pushes East: Marginal Severe Risk and Heavy Rain Target the Mid-South, Florida's Flood Watch Isn't Done Yet
The same system that spun up tornado watches and a 75-mph wind gust across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle yesterday has shifted east, bringing a Marginal severe risk and a Slight excessive rainfall risk from the Sabine River Valley into the Tennessee Valley today. Meanwhile, southeast Florida is still drying out from this week's flash flood emergency, and the Southwest's swollen rivers are finally starting to recede.
- Tip-Off Night Meets Tornado Watch Season
College basketball's opening night is lighting up arenas from Tampa to Conway, Arkansas, right as the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk posted over Oklahoma and Kansas and Florida's east coast is still mopping up from a Moderate flash flood risk. Two very different Tuesday nights, same atmosphere.
- Central Alabama's Quiet 24-Day Streak Is Outlasting Every Flashier Weather Story This Fall
While the Desert Southwest and the Plains have hogged the headlines with floods and severe storms, a cluster of small towns in central Alabama and west Georgia has quietly strung together 24 straight days of Nice-or-better weather. Today's national map adds a second storyline worth knowing about: a Beautiful-tier Southwest and a surprisingly comfortable Carolinas-to-Mid-Atlantic corridor, with the week's best outdoor window sliding from Arizona into Texas by Wednesday.
- Slight Risk Severe Weather Targets Dallas to Kansas City Today, With Flooding Threat Riding Shotgun
An upper-level trough moving out of the Rockies is setting up a Slight Risk severe weather day across the southern and central Plains, with Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Kansas City all in the crosshairs for damaging wind and a few tornadoes. A WPC Slight Risk for excessive rainfall overlaps part of that same corridor, and the severe threat slides into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
- A Circus Tent, a Mariachi Festival, and the Storm Lining Up to Test Both
Sixty thousand people ran through New York today while a slight risk of severe weather quietly built across the Heartland for Monday. We trace that setup from a circus big top in Missouri to a Mariachi festival in flood-weary Arizona, and explain what the SPC and WPC numbers actually mean for the people standing under those tents.
- From Flash Floods to Perfect: The Desert Southwest's 48-Hour Turnaround
Phoenix spent yesterday morning pulling drivers out of floodwaters, and the Four Corners still carries a Moderate excessive rainfall risk today. But as that atmospheric river finally clears out Monday, it leaves behind the only PERFECT-scoring air in the country across Las Vegas and the southern California deserts, with the good weather holding into Tuesday across Phoenix, Tucson, and El Paso.