Blog Article
Moderate Severe Weather Risk For Kansas & Nebraska Monday
A Level 4 Moderate Risk for severe storms targets Kansas and Nebraska on Monday with strong tornadoes and giant hail. Fire and winter weather also impact the West.
A Level 4 Severe Threat Looms For Monday While Fires And Snow Split The West
Alright y'all, we have a highly complex and dangerous weather setup unfolding over the next 48 hours. Yesterday gave us a preview of what this atmosphere can do. We saw an 88 mph wind gust in Colby, Kansas, baseball-sized hail, and a wall of dust that dropped visibility to zero.
Today, we are watching an Enhanced Risk for severe storms in the Upper Midwest. But get this. The Storm Prediction Center just upgraded tomorrow's forecast to a Moderate Risk for parts of the Central Plains. That is a Level 4 out of 5, and it requires your full attention.
The Main Event: Monday's Moderate Risk
Here is the thing about Monday. The atmosphere over Kansas and Nebraska is going to be incredibly volatile. We have a powerful upper-level trough ejecting out of the Rockies, and it is going to clash with a very juicy, unstable air mass over the Plains.
The SPC has drawn a Moderate Risk covering central and northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska. This includes Topeka, Lawrence, Manhattan, and Emporia. The Enhanced Risk surrounds it, stretching up through the Kansas City metro, Omaha, and Des Moines.
We are looking at two massive threats tomorrow:
- Giant Hail: There is a 45 percent hatched area for severe hail. That means if a storm forms, it has a very high probability of dropping hailstones up to 3.5 inches in diameter. That is softball size, folks. It will destroy windshields and damage roofs.
- Strong Tornadoes: We have a 15 percent hatched risk for tornadoes. The environment supports intense supercells, and any tornadoes that form in this hatched area could reach EF3 intensity or stronger.
If you have tickets to see the Red Sox play the Royals in Kansas City tomorrow night, you need a rock-solid weather plan. Have a way to get warnings, know where the stadium shelters are, and do not wait until the last minute to seek cover.
Today's Threat in the Upper Midwest
Before we get to Monday, we have to get through today. An Enhanced Risk is in place right now for eastern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, and western Iowa. Cities like Omaha, Lincoln, and Sioux Falls are in the crosshairs.
The setup today features a 15 percent hatched area for tornadoes and a 30 percent hatched risk for both damaging winds over 75 mph and very large hail. If you are heading out to Target Field to watch the Twins host the Brewers this afternoon, Minneapolis is sitting right on the edge of the Slight Risk. You might see some delays, so keep an eye on the radar app on your phone.
Fire and Ice in the West
While the Plains deal with severe storms, the western side of this system is telling a completely different story.
Down in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, extending into eastern New Mexico, we have an Extremely Critical fire weather risk today and tomorrow. Relative humidity is tanking to near single digits. But the biggest concern is a passing cold front. It will bring a sharp, 180-degree wind shift, turning strong southwesterly winds into strong northerly winds. If a wildfire is already burning, that wind shift will push the fire line in a completely new direction. That is an incredibly dangerous situation for fire crews.
Meanwhile, just a few hundred miles north, it is snowing. A deepening surface low is pulling cold air down into Wyoming and Colorado. The normal high for Denver in mid-May is 71 degrees, but they are looking at temperatures way below that, accompanied by heavy, wet snow. The NWS has a Slight Risk for winter storm impacts up for Cheyenne and Fort Collins. Expect blizzard-like conditions and major travel headaches if you are driving on I-80 or I-25 tonight into Monday.
The Bottom Line
We have a multi-hazard storm system that is going to impact millions of people over the next two days. If you live in Kansas or Nebraska, today is the day to clean out the garage so you can park your cars inside tomorrow. Check your weather radio batteries. Make sure your family knows where your safe room is. Do not mess around with a Moderate Risk.
I will be watching the data closely as we head into the afternoon.