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Mother's Day Severe Weather: Texas Storms & Gulf Flooding

An Enhanced Risk for severe weather targets Texas this Mother's Day with 75 mph winds, while Louisiana faces ongoing flash flood threats. Get the forecast.

Mother's Day Severe Weather: Texas Storms & Gulf Flooding

A Mother's Day Severe Threat in Texas and Ongoing Gulf Coast Flooding

Alright y'all, we had a wild Friday. We went from frost advisories in the upper Midwest to baseball-sized hail in Oklahoma and street flooding in Louisiana all in the same day. As we look at the rest of the weekend, the weather is not taking a break. If you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day in Texas, we need to have a serious talk about the forecast.

Mother's Day Severe Threat in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of west-central and north-central Texas to an Enhanced Risk for severe weather on Sunday. That is a Level 3 out of 5, and it includes the entire Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex down toward Waco.

We are looking at a classic spring setup where a cluster of storms organizes into what we call a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS. Basically, it is a large, organized line of thunderstorms that acts like a snowplow, pushing a wall of damaging wind ahead of it.

The main threats with this system on Sunday afternoon and evening are going to be significant. We have a 30 percent probability for damaging winds, and the data shows those gusts could exceed 75 mph. We are also looking at a 30 percent probability for severe hail, with hailstones potentially reaching 2 inches in diameter. That is hen-egg size, folks. If you are taking Mom out to dinner, make sure you know exactly where you can take shelter if a warning is issued.

Today's Concerns: Oklahoma Hail and Louisiana Rain

Before we get to Sunday, we have to get through today. For Saturday, we have a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms centered over western and central Oklahoma down into northwest Texas. Places like Lawton and Wichita Falls need to be on alert. The main hazards here are large hail and isolated damaging winds, but a 5 percent tornado probability means a few tornadoes are absolutely possible this afternoon and evening.

Down on the Gulf Coast, water is the primary problem. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall posted for southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today. We saw significant street flooding yesterday in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, with water coming up over the curbs. The ground is completely saturated. Any new thunderstorms that develop today and track southward are going to cause immediate runoff problems.

Key Factors We Are Watching

  • The Texas MCS timing: The exact arrival time of that storm complex in DFW will determine how much daytime heating it has to work with. Dallas usually sees highs around 84 degrees this time of year, and all that warm, humid air is pure storm fuel.
  • Training storms in Louisiana: We are watching the radar closely along the I-10 corridor. If storms start lining up and moving over the exact same areas, flash flooding will happen fast.
  • Outdoor events: If you are heading to the Red Dirt BBQ and Music Festival in Tyler today, the weather should be okay for the bulk of the event, but keep an eye on the sky tonight as that frontal boundary sags south.

The Bottom Line

This is an active weekend across the southern tier of the country. If you live in North Texas, you need to treat Sunday afternoon with respect. Secure your patio furniture, park the cars in the garage if you can, and have your phone alerts turned on loud. Down in Louisiana, do not drive through flooded roads. Keep your devices charged, know your safe place, and be ready to act if a warning is issued for your area.

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