Blog Article

Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat Hits Plains and South

A volatile spring pattern brings a multi-day severe weather marathon to the Plains and South, featuring large hail, tornadoes, and critical fire danger.

Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat Hits Plains and South

A Multi-Day Severe Weather Marathon Kicks Off Today

As we talked about yesterday, the atmosphere is setting up a massive roadblock for outdoor plans across the South and Plains this week. If you are heading to FuelFest in the Dallas area or the Austin Blues Fest, you already know the drill. We have a classic, highly active spring setup locked in place.

But here is the thing. This is not just a passing cold front. We are looking at a multi-day severe weather marathon that kicks off this afternoon and lasts right through the weekend. A vigorous upper-level trough is digging into the central US, and it is pulling up a ton of deep Gulf moisture. Normal high temperatures for late April in places like Oklahoma City and Dallas are in the low to mid 70s. We are seeing temperatures surge well above that in the warm sector ahead of these storm systems, creating a very juicy environment for storms to tap into.

Today's Target: Kansas and Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk posted for eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma today. That is a level 3 out of 5 on the severe weather scale. Places like Wichita, Topeka, Manhattan, and Ponca City are right in the bullseye.

We expect discrete supercells to fire up along the dryline between 3 PM and 5 PM this afternoon. The main hazards with these initial storms will be very large hail up to two inches in diameter and a few tornadoes. As the evening goes on, these storms will likely merge into a line and push east toward Missouri, shifting the threat to damaging straight-line winds.

The Fire Threat Out West

West of that dryline, the air is bone dry. We have a Critical Fire Weather risk for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today. If you are in Amarillo or Lubbock, you are looking at wind gusts up to 60 mph and humidity dropping into the single digits. It is incredibly dangerous to do any outdoor burning in these conditions. A single spark can start a wildfire that moves faster than you can run.

The Threat Shifts Friday

On Friday, the severe weather threat shifts east and south into the ArkLaTex and the Lower Mississippi Valley. A Slight Risk covers Shreveport, Little Rock, and Jackson.

The storms on Friday are expected to grow into a messy cluster or a squall line. That means damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard, though a brief tornado or large hail cannot be ruled out. The Weather Prediction Center also has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall in this area, so localized flash flooding is possible if storms train over the same locations.

The Weekend Reloads

Alright folks, you need to pay close attention to the weekend forecast. The setup reloads on Saturday with another Enhanced Risk right back in Oklahoma, Kansas, and northwest Arkansas. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita need to be on high alert again for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

And it does not stop there. The data shows another massive, negatively tilted wave ejecting into the Plains on Sunday and Monday. The SPC already has a 30 percent risk area highlighted for those days across the Southern Plains and Midwest. High probabilities this far out tell us the ingredients are solidly in place for a significant severe weather event.

While the Plains deal with severe storms, the Rockies are actually looking at a late-season snowstorm by Sunday. It is a wildly dynamic pattern from coast to coast.

Bottom Line

  • Today: Supercells with large hail and tornadoes in KS and OK starting mid-afternoon.
  • Friday: Damaging winds and heavy rain in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
  • Saturday & Sunday: The severe threat reloads significantly across the Plains.
  • Fire Danger: Extreme fire weather continues in the Texas Panhandle today.

If you live anywhere from Texas up to the Midwest, you need to have your weather radio on and your phone charged. Know exactly where your safe space is before a warning is issued for your town. We will keep watching the data and bring you updates as this marathon event unfolds.

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