Blog Article

Moderate Severe Risk: Tornadoes & Giant Hail Target OK

A Moderate Risk for severe weather is in place for Oklahoma today. Expect threats of 3-inch hail and strong tornadoes. Read the full forecast and timeline.

A Volatile Saturday: Moderate Severe Risk Upgraded for Oklahoma

As we talked about yesterday, that system digging into the Southern Plains is fully here. The ingredients are in place, and the ceiling on this event has officially been raised. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms across central and southeast Oklahoma today.

That is a level four out of five on the severe weather scale. We do not see those every day, and it means you need to treat this afternoon and evening with respect.

The Setup Along the Red River

A mid-level shortwave is currently moving eastward across the southern Rockies. As it does, it is acting like a giant vacuum, pulling incredibly rich moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Normal high temperatures for Oklahoma City in late April sit right around 72 degrees. Today, that warm sector is going to feel heavy, humid, and unusually warm.

The atmosphere is currently capped. That means there is a layer of warm air aloft acting like a lid on a boiling pot. Convective initiation might be delayed until late afternoon or early evening because it takes time to erode that inversion. But once that lid breaks, the storms that form will have access to extreme instability.

Significant Hail and Tornado Threats

The data shows a massive hail threat today. We are talking about the potential for hailstones three inches in diameter or larger. That is big enough to total a windshield or damage a roof in seconds.

The tornado threat is also elevated. There is a 10 percent hatched risk area, which indicates the potential for strong, long-track tornadoes. If you live in Ada, you are right in the middle of that Moderate Risk. Surrounding areas like Norman, Edmond, Tulsa, and Fort Smith sit in an Enhanced Risk. Further south into Texas, places like Dallas and Fort Worth are in a Slight Risk. You might see some isolated severe storms down by the Metroplex, but the most volatile environment is focused just to your north.

Sunday Shifts the Threat North and West

The threat does not vanish after tonight. By Sunday, a surface low will deepen and eject into the Central Plains. That shifts our Enhanced Risk up into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Places like Kansas City, Wichita, and Topeka are in the bullseye for Sunday afternoon and evening.

The main threats tomorrow will again be large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes. If you are heading out to the Royals game or traveling along the I-70 corridor, you need to keep a close eye on the sky by late afternoon.

Critical Fire Weather in the Panhandles

While the eastern side of this system gets the storms, the backside gets the wind and dry air. We have a widespread Critical fire weather risk for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Sunday.

Sustained westerly winds of 20 to 25 mph will mix with bone-dry air behind the dryline. If a fire starts near Amarillo, Lubbock, or El Paso, it will spread incredibly fast. We are also looking at the potential for blowing dust, which could make travel hazardous for high-profile vehicles on I-40 and I-25.

The Bottom Line

Today is a "have your plan ready" kind of day. If you are in Oklahoma or western Arkansas, make sure your weather radio has batteries. Have multiple ways to get warnings that will wake you up if storms persist into the night. Know exactly where your safe room is located, and clean it out before the first watch is issued. If you are attending outdoor events this evening, know where the nearest solid shelter is located and do not wait for the rain to start before heading inside.

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