Blog Article

Midwest Severe Weather: Damaging Winds & Tornado Threat

An Enhanced Risk for severe weather targets the Midwest today and tomorrow. Expect 75 mph wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes near Chicago.

A Widespread Damaging Wind Threat Targets the Midwest

A Widespread Damaging Wind Threat Targets the Midwest

Alright y'all, the severe weather setup we talked about yesterday is officially on our doorstep. If you saw the news out of Kansas earlier this week, you know exactly what this kind of pattern can do. A measured 113 mph wind gust hit Salina on Monday night, and we saw confirmed tornado damage up in Michigan yesterday.

The atmosphere is not done yet. We have a very active two days ahead for the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.

Today's Threat: Large Hail and Tornado Potential

The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk posted for today across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. That includes Chicago, Milwaukee, and Kansas City.

Here is the thing. The airmass over the Midwest is incredibly juicy right now. A normal high for Chicago in early June is right around 80 degrees, but we have a warm front lifting north that is pulling in a ton of heat and moisture. When a mid-level trough swings through this afternoon, it is going to act like a spark plug.

We are looking at three main hazards for today:

  • Tornadoes: There is a 10 percent probability area with a hatched risk. That means if a tornado forms, it could reach EF2 intensity or stronger.
  • Damaging Winds: We have a 30 percent hatched area for wind. Expect the potential for gusts over 75 mph.
  • Large Hail: There is also a 30 percent hatched area for hail. Stones could reach 2 inches in diameter, which is about the size of a hen egg.

If you are heading out to the Grant Park Music Festival in Chicago tonight, or if you have tickets to see the Braves play the White Sox, you need to pay close attention to the radar. These storms will likely start as isolated, rotating supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes. As the evening goes on, they are expected to merge into a solid line and sweep southeast.

Diagram showing how a supercell transitions into a bowing line segment

Expect significant flight delays at O'Hare and Midway this afternoon and evening. If you are flying through the Midwest, check your flight status before you leave for the airport.

Tomorrow: A Major Wind Threat

Get this. The threat does not fade on Thursday. In fact, the wind threat actually goes up.

The SPC has issued another Enhanced Risk for Day 2, covering northeast Missouri up through Illinois, Indiana, and southern Michigan. This includes Chicago again, along with Grand Rapids and Fort Wayne.

The data shows a massive 45 percent hatched probability for damaging winds tomorrow. That is a widespread, destructive wind threat. We are talking about the potential for 75 mph gusts knocking down trees and power lines across multiple states. The tornado threat drops slightly to a 5 percent probability, but the sheer force of the straight-line winds will be enough to cause widespread issues.

Flash Flooding Concerns

Flash flooding is the other piece of this puzzle. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall posted for both today and tomorrow across the Central Plains and Midwest.

We have already seen incredible rainfall totals this week, including 8 inches down in Indiana yesterday. The soils across Iowa and Illinois are saturated. When you get a boundary stalling out and thunderstorms training over the same areas, the water has nowhere to go. If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around. It is never worth the risk.

A Quick Look at the Tropics

Down in the Eastern Pacific, we are keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Cristina. The storm is currently drifting westward offshore of El Salvador with sustained winds around 40 mph. The main impact here is going to be heavy rain over portions of Central America through Thursday. We will keep watching it, but it is not a threat to the US mainland.

Bottom Line

If you live anywhere from Kansas City up to Grand Rapids, you need to be weather-aware today and tomorrow.

Tie down your patio furniture, bring in the garbage cans, and make sure your phones are charged. You need a way to get warnings that will wake you up if you are asleep. If you are attending an outdoor event like the Grant Park Music Festival, know exactly where your nearest sturdy shelter is located before the first drop of rain falls.

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