Blog Article
Texas BBQ Festival Weather: Storms & Rain Threaten Weekend
Heading to the Red Dirt BBQ Festival in Texas? A lifting warm front brings a risk of heavy rain, large hail, and isolated severe storms to the Southern Plains.
Brisket, Bands, and Boundary Layers: What to Expect for the Red Dirt BBQ Festival
Get this, y'all. Music fans and pitmasters are packing up their trucks and rolling into Tyler, Texas, for the Red Dirt BBQ and Music Festival this Saturday. You combine good brisket with live music, and you have a perfect Texas weekend. But the atmosphere is bringing a wildcard to the party.
We have a stalled front draped across the Gulf Coast. Over the next 48 hours, that front is going to lift north as a warm front. It is actively pulling a massive amount of moisture straight off the Gulf of Mexico.
Let me explain what the data shows for your weekend plans.
The Severe and Flood Threat
Normally, Dallas and the surrounding East Texas region see high temperatures right around 84 degrees in early May. We are going to see plenty of heat and a whole lot of humidity. Meteorologists measure the moisture sitting in the atmosphere above our heads using something called Precipitable Water. Our models show those values climbing over 1.75 inches from South Texas right up through the Lower Mississippi Valley. That is a very juicy environment.
Because of all that moisture, the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday. If you are camping out or tailgating near Tyler, expect some heavy downpours. Localized flash flooding is a real possibility.
We also have to watch out for a few strong thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal risk for severe weather across the Southern Plains and the Ozarks for Friday, and that threat lingers into Saturday.
Here are the primary hazards:
- Wind: There is a 5 percent chance of seeing damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. That is enough to toss an unsecured pop-up tent across a parking lot.
- Hail: We have a 5 percent chance of severe hail. There is a specific hatched area in the outlook where any hail that does form could get big. We are talking up to 2 inches in diameter, or about the size of a hen egg. You do not want that falling on your truck.
- Tornadoes: The threat is very low, sitting at just a 2 percent probability. Isolated tornadoes are possible if severe storms manage to organize.
The Silver Lining
If you live outside the South, your weekend is looking much quieter. A broad ridge of high pressure is bringing beautiful, dry conditions from the Central Plains all the way to the Mid-Atlantic. Fans catching the Reds and Cubs game in Chicago will have clear skies. Folks firing up the grill in the Ohio Valley will see plenty of sunshine too.
For the folks heading to East Texas, do not cancel your plans. Just be smart about your setup. Make sure your campsite is on high ground. Tie down those canopies. Keep a reliable weather app handy on your phone so you know when a heavy cell is approaching. The brisket will still taste great, even if you have to eat it under a poncho.