Blog Article
Election Night Storms Hit Mid-South; Florida Still Drying Out
Marginal severe storms target the Tennessee Valley on Election Night while southeast Florida faces fresh rain after last week's flash flood emergency.
Election Day Storms: What's Rolling Through the Mid-South Tonight (and Why Florida's Still Wringing Itself Out)
Alright folks, half the country's got election coverage on in the background tonight, and I get it. Control of Congress is at stake, the needle's gonna be doing its thing on TV, and everybody's refreshing results. But here in the weather world, we've got our own storyline playing out in almost the exact same places people are standing in line to vote.
The Mid-South's Got Company Tonight
The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms stretched from the Lower Mississippi Valley up into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight. We're talking Memphis, Nashville, Little Rock, Clarksville, Des Moines. That's over 18 million people sitting under at least some chance of a strong storm as polls close and results start rolling in.
Now don't panic. Marginal is the lowest rung on SPC's ladder. The tornado probability sits at just 2 percent, what they call an isolated tornado threat. Wind probability is 5 percent, so an isolated damaging gust is possible if a storm does get going, but this isn't the kind of setup that shuts down a region. It's the tail end of the same frontal system that fired off Tornado Watches 700 through 703 across Oklahoma and Texas yesterday, where a mesonet near Braman clocked a 75.8 mph gust. That energy is weakening as it slides east, but there's still enough juice left for an isolated severe cell tonight from the Ark-La-Miss into the Tennessee Valley.
There's also a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall riding along with it, same corridor. If you're an election worker, a poll watcher, or just somebody trying to get to your precinct after dinner in Memphis or Nashville, keep an eye on the sky between now and midnight. A quick downpour and a gusty storm won't shut down a polling place, but it might make for a soggy walk to your car.
Temperature-wise, this whole stretch is running close to normal for early November. Nashville's averaging a 60-degree high and 39-degree low this time of year, Little Rock's sitting around 62 and 41. We're not dealing with any wild temperature swing tonight, just garden-variety early-winter instability riding a front that's been active for days.
Florida's Still Cleaning Up
Here's the thing people outside Florida might not realize. Two nights ago, this same pattern put down a Flash Flood Emergency on Palm Bay and West Melbourne. A rain gauge near Palm Bay measured 13.6 inches. Radar estimates in pockets of Brevard and Indian River counties ran as high as 15 to 22 inches. Homes flooded. Cars got stranded. That water doesn't just disappear in 48 hours.
Now WPC has a Marginal excessive rainfall risk back over southeast Florida for Wednesday, plus another Slight risk corridor pushing through the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley overnight. It's a lighter threat than what hit Palm Bay, but when the ground's still saturated and storm drains are still working overtime, even a moderate rain event can cause fresh headaches.
Meanwhile, life goes on. Folks in Orlando are heading out tonight for the Florida A&M versus UCF women's basketball game and a comedy show from Dustin Nickerson. Good news for that crowd: central Florida isn't in the bullseye for tonight's heavier rain. The focus stays south and east, closer to the coast. If your plans are in Orlando proper, you're probably fine. If you're in Palm Beach, Broward, or the Treasure Coast, keep that rain gear handy and don't be surprised if a street you drove through Sunday is wet again by Thursday morning.
What This Means for You
Weather doesn't care who wins an election, but it does shape the evening for a whole lot of people trying to get to the polls, get home, or get to a ballgame. Tonight's storms in the Mid-South are nothing to lose sleep over. Isolated, marginal, moving through. Florida's situation is a slower burn. The ground there needs time and dry stretches to recover, and this week isn't offering much of either.
Check the radar before you head out tonight, wherever you are. And if you're in Brevard or Palm Beach County, maybe hold off on throwing away those sandbags just yet.