Blog Article
Flash Flood and Severe Wind Risk From Ozarks to Appalachians
A Slight Risk for flash flooding runs from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians today, with damaging wind gusts possible. The threat shifts to the Tennessee Valley Saturday.
Flash Flood Risk Sets Up From the Ozarks to the Appalachians as the Storm Track Slides South
Alright y'all, the pattern that's been beating up the eastern half of the country all week isn't done. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today, and it runs from the mid-Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians. That's a Level 2 out of 4. Not the scary end of the scale, but the kind of setup that puts water where you don't want it if the storms line up just right.
And here's the thing about this one. The problem isn't a single big storm. It's storms following each other over the same ground. Meteorologists call that training, like railcars passing over the same stretch of track. When that happens, rainfall rates stack up fast, and creeks and storm drains can't keep pace.
Where the Water Threat Lives Today
The WPC put it plainly this morning: the Slight risk got pushed north across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio to account for multiple evolving convective threats. Storms were already going at daybreak across southern Missouri. That's the same general zone that's been getting worked over this week, so the ground is primed and the margins are thin.
Think about what we've already seen this month. Polk City, Iowa, picked up 13.5 inches in a day back on the Fourth. Kelleys Island, Ohio, got 12 to 14 inches in a six-hour window on the 6th. Philadelphia had a creek rise six feet in 21 minutes. When soils are already loaded and the atmosphere keeps recycling moisture, it doesn't take much of a nudge to get flooding again.
The Wind Side of the Story
The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe storms in two zones today. One sits over the southern and central High Plains, and it covers Springfield and Columbia, Missouri, plus Joplin and out toward Lamar and Eads, Colorado. The other threat spreads east from the Ozarks and mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern and central Appalachians.
The main hazards are damaging wind gusts of 60-plus mph and isolated large hail. Inside the higher-end pocket, SPC has a 15 percent scattered damaging wind area. That's the corridor to watch for storms that could knock down trees and power lines.
And we've got the receipts on why to take wind seriously right now. Yesterday a gust of 79.9 mph got measured near Goodland, Kansas. Missouri saw a Destructive Severe Thunderstorm Warning tagged for 80 mph gusts. This pattern has been producing genuinely strong wind events, not just garden-variety pop-up storms.
Saturday: The Threat Slides Into the Tennessee Valley
By tomorrow, the severe risk shifts toward the Ozark Plateau and the Tennessee Valley. SPC has a Slight Risk covering Nashville, Memphis, Huntsville, and Little Rock. A weakening front will crawl south, and forecast soundings show MUCAPE around 1,500 to 3,000 joules per kilogram with deep-layer shear near 20 to 25 knots. That's enough to grow multicell clusters into bowing line segments, and some of those bows could put down gusts of 75 mph or better.
WPC keeps a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on the board Saturday too, from the Mississippi Valley into the central Appalachians. If the heavy rain axes overlap the way some guidance suggests, there's an outside chance of an upgrade. Something to keep an eye on if you're in that zone.
What About the Ballgames and the Festivals
Big weekend on the sports calendar, and some of it sits right in the crosshairs. The Cubs and Reds play in Cincinnati, the Braves and Cardinals are in St. Louis, and the Yankees are in Washington. All of those cities fall inside or near the marginal-to-slight severe zones tonight and tomorrow. If you've got tickets, keep an eye on the radar before you leave and don't be shocked by a rain delay.
Up in Saint Paul, the Minnesota Country Club Festival is running through the weekend, and the northern tier is actually the bright spot in the country. More on that in a second.
One note for the road: the MLB All-Star Game is in Philadelphia on the 14th, and the World Cup Final is at MetLife on the 19th. Both sit east of today's main action, but this is the same broad pattern we've been tracking all week over the Mid-Atlantic. We'll keep watching it.
The Good News Up North
If you want to escape the heat and humidity, look to the northern tier. The Pacific Northwest into Montana and the Upper Great Lakes is scoring the best weather in the country right now, with near cloud-free skies and light winds. That NICE zone holds into the weekend before it starts to contract. So for the folks at the Minnesota festival or catching a Twins game in Minneapolis, you drew the good straw.
Meanwhile the rest of the interior stays hot and sticky. Dewpoints climbing into the 60s and 70s keep the heat index elevated across the Plains and the East, so hydrate and take breaks if you're outside for long stretches.
One More Thing: A Chance at the Northern Lights
Quick space weather note. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic conditions could reach unsettled to active levels tonight and tomorrow, with an isolated chance of G1 minor storming as a high-speed stream off a coronal hole rolls in. That's a low-end event, not a big geomagnetic storm, but if you're in the far northern states with clear skies, it's worth a glance north after dark.
Bottom Line
- Flash flooding is the headline today. From Missouri through the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians, training storms could drop heavy rain on ground that's already soaked. Never drive into water over a road.
- Damaging wind is the severe threat. 60-plus mph gusts are possible from the High Plains through the Ozarks and into the Appalachians, with a focused wind corridor in the mid-Mississippi Valley.
- Saturday shifts the action south into the Tennessee Valley, with a shot at 75 mph gusts in stronger line segments around Nashville, Memphis, and Little Rock.
- Ballgames tonight in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Washington could see delays. Check radar before you head out.
- Northern tier is the place to be if you want dry, comfortable weather this weekend.
Check your local NWS office for warnings as storms develop, and if you're under a flash flood warning, treat it like the real thing.