Blog Article
Dolly, Lowell, Karina: Tropics Busy, Hawaii & Caribbean Watch
Four tropical systems are active as Dolly nears the Leewards and Lowell could threaten Hawaii by Sept 2. Plus severe storm and flood risks for the Carolinas today.
Four Storms Spinning in the Tropics: Dolly Eyes the Leewards While Lowell Could Test Hawaii
Alright folks, the tropics decided to get crowded this week. We've got four named or numbered systems on the board this morning across three ocean basins, plus a couple of invests still waiting in the wings. Let's sort out who matters to you and who's just out there spinning in open water.
The Big One to Watch: Tropical Storm Dolly
Dolly is the system with the most direct path toward land. As of the 5 AM advisory, Dolly's packing 40 mph winds and hauling west at a brisk 24 mph, about 1,145 miles east of the Leeward Islands. That fast forward speed means this thing isn't wasting time.
The National Hurricane Center's impact model has St. Barthélemy, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saba, and St. Martin all flagged at a "prepare" threat level, with closest approach expected in about two and a half days. Antigua looks to be right in the path too, with the center forecast to pass within about 8 miles around daybreak Sunday morning. San Juan's forecast office is already watching this one closely for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend, since even a weaker tropical storm can dump a lot of rain fast when it's moving through mountainous island terrain.
Here's the honest read though: Dolly is fighting dry air and its low-level circulation looked a little ragged on satellite overnight. This isn't shaping up to be a powerhouse hurricane. But rain and gusty wind for the islands this weekend is a real deal, so if you've got people in the Leewards, Puerto Rico, or the Virgin Islands, now's the time to check in with them.
The One With the Bigger Long-Range Question: Lowell
Out in the East Pacific, Lowell is a 46 mph tropical storm doing something unusual right now: drifting northeast instead of the typical westward track. Forecasters expect it to turn back west and steadily strengthen. The scary number in the data is this: NHC's landfall model shows Lowell reaching major hurricane strength, around 95 mph, with a closest approach to the east side of Hawaii Island of less than 30 kilometers by around September 2.
That's still five days out, and tropical forecasts that far out carry real uncertainty, especially with a storm this early in its life cycle. But Honolulu's forecast office already put this on their radar for a reason. If you've got Hawaii travel plans for early next week, keep an eye on this one. We'll have more as the track firms up.
Karina and Lala: Lower Priority, But Worth Knowing
Tropical Storm Karina, also in the East Pacific, is forecast to become what NHC is calling a "formidable hurricane," but it's staying well offshore of southwestern Mexico with no U.S. impact expected. And out in the Central Pacific, former Hurricane Lala has weakened to post-tropical status over cool water north of Kure Atoll. That one's done as a hurricane threat; NHC issued its final advisory on it overnight.
Closer to Home: A Soggy, Storm-Prone Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
After yesterday's mess in the Northeast, where northern New Jersey and New York City saw over 5 inches of rain in spots and multiple water rescues, the focus shifts south and east today. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall up for the coastal Carolinas, southeast Virginia, and coastal Georgia. A stalled front combined with precipitable water values over 2 inches means storms that do fire could produce hourly rain rates heavy enough to cause localized flash flooding, especially in the afternoon and evening.
On top of that, SPC has a Marginal severe risk covering a big chunk of the country today: the central and northern Plains, the Great Basin and desert Southwest into the northern Rockies, north Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, and even central and eastern Maine. The main threats are isolated damaging wind gusts and quarter-size hail, nothing widespread, but enough to cause a few tree-down or power-flicker type reports.
That's not nothing for folks with plans tonight. The Commanders are at the Ravens in Baltimore, the Texans are at the Panthers in Charlotte, and NC State visits Virginia in Charlottesville on Saturday, all sitting inside or near that Marginal risk zone. If you're headed to any of those, keep half an eye on the sky during pregame.
Saturday: The Risk Sharpens Up West
Looking a day ahead, SPC's Day 2 outlook tightens the focus onto the northern Great Basin and northern Plains, with a Slight Risk covering Salt Lake City, Provo, and Bismarck, and a Marginal Risk fanning out across Billings, Rapid City, Cheyenne, and Casper. An approaching upper trough and strengthening flow aloft could support a few strong to severe storms capable of 75 mph-plus gusts in the most favored corridor. By Sunday, that severe threat drifts into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, brushing Minneapolis, Omaha, and Fargo, right as the Minnesota State Fair wraps up its run in Falcon Heights.
Space Weather: Watch the Sky Tonight, Too
Separate from all the tropical and severe weather chatter, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center says a coronal hole high-speed stream and a couple of CMEs from earlier this week are expected to push geomagnetic activity up to G2, or Moderate storm level, later today. If you're in the northern tier of the country with clear skies tonight, that's worth a look outside after dark. This is a short-term bump though; the broader 27-day outlook still calls for a quiet stretch overall.
Key Things We're Watching
- Dolly's track and intensity as it nears the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands into the weekend
- Whether Lowell actually strengthens into a major hurricane on its projected path toward Hawaii Island by around September 2
- Flash flood potential today across the coastal Carolinas, southeast Virginia, and coastal Georgia from training storms along a stalled front
- Marginal severe risk today for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic corridor, including areas hosting Friday night preseason football
- Saturday's sharper severe threat in the northern Great Basin and northern Plains, with significant wind gusts possible
- Possible G2 geomagnetic storming and aurora chances across the northern U.S. tonight
Bottom Line
No single system is screaming for panic today, but there's a lot on the board. If you've got people or plans in the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, or the U.S. Virgin Islands, Dolly is worth tracking through the weekend. Hawaii travelers should keep Lowell on the radar for early next week, though it's still five days out and the track can shift. Closer to home, carry an umbrella if you're headed to a Friday night game in the Carolinas, DC, or Baltimore, and folks in the northern Great Basin and Plains should watch Saturday's forecast tighten up as a stronger severe setup takes shape.