Blog Article
Hurricane Lala Weakens Past Hawaii; Mid-Atlantic Storm Risk Today
Hurricane Lala drops to Category 2 near Hawaii with no landfall forecast, while the Mid-Atlantic faces a Slight Risk for severe storms and flash flooding today.
Lala Fades Past Hawaii While the Mid-Atlantic Watches for Storms and Flooding
Morning, y'all. Two stories worth your coffee today: a hurricane that's finally losing steam out in the Central Pacific, and a fresh round of storms setting up over the Mid-Atlantic after the week we've all just lived through.
Lala Is Winding Down
Remember when we told y'all Lala hit Category 4 strength with 130 mph winds earlier this week? That was the peak. The storm has been sliding downhill ever since, and as of this morning it's a Category 2 hurricane with 104 mph winds, way down from where it was 48 hours ago.
The National Hurricane Center's discussion says Lala has "lost organization," with the deepest thunderstorms getting pushed off to the north side of the storm and the mid-level center drifting away from the low-level center. That's shear doing its work, tearing the storm apart from the inside even as it keeps moving.
Lala is centered about 150 miles southwest of Maro Reef, tracking north-northwest at 9 mph. The data shows no landfall forecast anywhere, and the storm's closest pass to land already happened a few hours ago, about 67 kilometers off Kauai's south shore, well offshore. If you're in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands or the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, you're still dealing with a hurricane in the neighborhood, but the trend is the right direction: weaker, and moving away.
Worth watching behind Lala: Invest 90EP sitting southeast of Hawaii has a 90 percent chance of development in both the next two days and the next seven, per the National Hurricane Center's outlook. There's also a disturbance closer to the mainland Pacific coast (EP-Area-1) carrying an 80 percent chance of development by day 7. Neither is an immediate threat to anybody, but the Central Pacific isn't done for the season, not by a long shot.
Mid-Atlantic: Slight Risk for Storms and Flooding Today
After a week of Plains and Midwest chaos, the severe weather focus swings east today. SPC has a Slight Risk up from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, covering Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Virginia Beach, with a broader Marginal Risk stretching into New York, Charlotte, and Memphis.
Here's the setup: a shortwave trough is riding through broader northwesterly flow aloft, and that's enough to spark scattered severe storms today and tonight. The main threat is damaging wind gusts, with SPC putting a 30 percent probability on numerous damaging wind reports in the highest-risk zone, and a hatched area where gusts could reach 75 mph or better if a storm really gets going. Large hail up to 2 inches is possible in that same hatched zone, and there's a modest 5 percent tornado chance layered in too, mainly an isolated-tornado-if-storms-fire kind of setup, not an outbreak signal.
On top of the wind and hail threat, WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic today, with that risk sliding south into Virginia and the Carolinas tomorrow as a cold front slowly works through the region. If you're in Philly, D.C., or Baltimore, this is peak-of-summer thunderstorm season doing its thing. Normal August highs run around 85 in Philadelphia and 87 in D.C., so nothing unusual temperature-wise, but the atmosphere's got enough juice for storms that mean business for an hour or two.
If you've got tickets to the Orioles hosting the Yankees in Baltimore tonight, or you're headed anywhere along I-95 through the Mid-Atlantic corridor, keep half an eye on the sky this afternoon and evening. Airports in the Northeast corridor, think Philadelphia, Newark, LaGuardia, are also flagged for potential IFR conditions and delays as this front works through, so build in extra time if you're flying.
What Comes Next: Nebraska and Northern Kansas Friday
The severe threat doesn't stay put. SPC's Day 2 outlook shifts the Slight Risk zone west into Nebraska and northern Kansas for Friday, with a Marginal Risk fanning out into the Dakotas, Iowa, Missouri, and even down into Georgia and the Carolinas. This is the same part of the country that got hammered earlier this week, remember the 82 mph gust near Greeley, Nebraska, and the tornado warning near Cass and Otoe counties on Wednesday. Friday's setup calls for moderate northwest flow aloft over the northern and central Plains, which typically means training storms with large hail (SPC mentions potential for hail over 2 inches) and severe wind gusts late Friday afternoon into the evening.
What We're Watching
- Hurricane Lala's continued weakening trend as it clears the Hawaiian Islands, current strength Category 2 with 104 mph winds
- Invest 90EP southeast of Hawaii, 90 percent chance of development in the next 7 days
- Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail today across the Mid-Atlantic, especially D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia
- Slight Risk excessive rainfall today in the Mid-Atlantic, sliding into Virginia and the Carolinas Friday
- Severe threat re-forming over Nebraska and northern Kansas Friday afternoon and evening, with potential for very large hail
- Airport delay potential in the Northeast corridor (PHL, EWR, LGA) as the front pushes through today into tonight
Bottom Line
Hawaii's hurricane threat is easing, Lala's weaker and moving away with no landfall expected, but the Central Pacific still has two more systems worth watching this week. Closer to home, if you're anywhere from D.C. to Philly to Virginia Beach today, keep your phone charged and know where you'll go if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning pops up this afternoon. The wind is the main story here, not the tornado threat, so trees and power lines are more likely than not to take the brunt of it. And if you live anywhere from Nebraska into northern Kansas, circle Friday afternoon on the calendar. That part of the country has already had one rough week; this next round could bring large hail and damaging gusts right back to the same neighborhoods.