Blog Article
South Texas Flash Flood Risk Sunday, Rain Lingers Monday
Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk for southern Texas Sunday, with rain starting tonight near the Rio Grande Valley and Corpus Christi, and lingering into Monday.
Level 2 flash flood risk in southern Texas Sunday, rain lingers Monday
Parts of southern Texas have a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) flash flood risk on Sunday, November 8, after rain builds in tonight. Localized flash flooding is the concern, and some wet weather hangs on into Monday morning.
The short version
- Where: Southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley and the Corpus Christi area. The western edge of the Hill Country could see some rain too.
- When: Rain ramps up tonight (Saturday night), peaks Sunday, and fades from west to east on Monday.
- What: Locally 1 to 2 inches of rain along the Rio Grande Valley tonight, with more heavy rain Sunday. Another 1 to 2 inches is possible Monday, mostly over the same areas.
- What it means: Localized flash flooding in spots, especially in towns and cities where rain runs off fast. This is not a statewide washout.
Saturday night sets the stage
A disturbance high in the atmosphere is moving into northern Mexico, and it is helping rain spread across West and South Texas today. Most of the rain this afternoon is weak and scattered, so the flooding threat stays low and brief. Today carries only a Level 1 of 4 (Marginal) risk.
The better setup arrives tonight. Winds funnel moist air up the Rio Grande, and heavy rain should develop between Val Verde and Maverick counties and the areas next to them. Totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible in spots, with a little spilling into the western Hill Country. Cities along the Rio Grande are the likeliest places for water on the streets.
Sunday is the main day
Sunday is when the Level 2 risk applies. Moist air flowing in from the east gets pushed up higher terrain, and a strong stream of wind just above the ground keeps feeding it. That lets storms keep going longer and rain harder than they do today.
A Flood Watch is already up for a stretch of south Texas, including Nueces, Kleberg, San Patricio, Aransas, Bee, Jim Wells, Duval and Live Oak counties and others nearby. It runs through Monday morning. You can follow every active alert on our warnings page.
How sure are we? The rain itself looks solid. The flooding part is less certain. Soils are fairly dry, and the ground can soak up the first round of rain before water starts to pile up. That is why this is a Level 2 and not higher. Once the ground fills, or if storms keep passing over the same neighborhoods, flooding gets more likely. Exactly which neighborhoods get hit is not something we can pin down ahead of time.
No severe storms are expected Sunday.
Monday morning still has some rain
Scattered downpours are likely still going across southern Texas early Monday. Then drier air comes in from the north, and the rain weakens through the afternoon and shuts off from west to east. Another 1 to 2 inches is possible, mostly in the same area that gets rain Sunday. Since the ground will already be wet, some flooding impacts could linger into Monday. The risk is Level 1 of 4 (Marginal).
Our newest model graphic comes from the GFS run that started at noon Central today. It maps the rain the model expects from Monday morning to Tuesday morning, which is the tail end of this event. Treat it as one model's best guess at where the leftover rain lands, not a promise of exact totals.
The coast is the last place to dry out. If the heaviest rain stays right along the coast, sandier soils and fewer paved areas should hold flooding down. If it shifts inland toward the larger cities of far southern Texas, impacts go up.
What to do
- Don't drive into water over the road. That goes double at night, when you can't tell how deep it is. Turn around and take another route.
- Plan Sunday trips early if you can, and check the flash flood outlook before you head out. Our interstate driving outlook can help with longer drives.
- Know your low spots. If you live or park near a creek, a low-water crossing or an underpass that floods, move the car to higher ground before the rain peaks.
- Keep your phone ready. Warnings can pop up fast when a storm sits over one area. You can sign up for free Y'all Alerts.
Bottom line
Southern Texas should plan for a wet Sunday with a chance of localized flash flooding, especially near Corpus Christi and along the Rio Grande Valley. The rain tapers off Monday, and drier air takes over.
https://ryanhallyall.com/blog/level-2-flash-flood-risk-in-southern-texas-sunday-rain-lingers-monday