Blog Article

Southeast Flood Threat Impacts Country Music Fest Prep

A surge of tropical moisture brings a flash flood risk to the Southeast just as fans prep for June music festivals. Plus, a severe wind threat in Kansas.

Get this, y'all. Thousands of folks are currently packing up RVs, loading coolers, and mapping out their road trips to the coast. The Carolina Country Music Fest kicks off in Myrtle Beach next week, and CMA Fest is right around the corner in Nashville. But if you are heading down to the Southeast this weekend to beat the rush or set up camp, you might want to pack an extra pair of mud boots.

The Southeast Sponge

The Weather Prediction Center just introduced a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday across South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. We are tracking a stalled frontal boundary draped across the region, and it is pulling in a massive amount of tropical moisture straight from the western Caribbean Sea.

Meteorologists look at a value called precipitable water to see exactly how much juice is in the atmosphere. Right now, those values are sitting over two inches in the Southeast. That is incredibly high. It means when thunderstorms form, they are going to dump water like a bucket tipping over.

Normal high temperatures for late May in places like Atlanta sit right around 80 degrees. Combine that typical Southern heat with this anomalous humidity, and it is going to feel like a sauna right before the bottom falls out. Expect scattered flash flooding on Sunday, especially in low-lying campgrounds, poor drainage areas, and urban intersections. If you are setting up a tent or parking a camper anywhere near the coast, find high ground.

The Kansas Convective Engine

While the Southeast deals with water, the Central Plains are dealing with wind and hail tonight. There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms sitting right over central Kansas. Towns like Salina, Hutchinson, and Great Bend are in the crosshairs.

The atmosphere out there is absolutely loaded with energy. We are expecting discrete supercells to fire off first, bringing a threat for two-inch hail. That is the size of a hen egg. After that, those storms will likely merge into a big line and sweep east. When that happens, the main threat shifts to damaging wind gusts.

The Storm Prediction Center has a hatched area highlighted where gusts could exceed 75 mph. That is enough wind to snap tree limbs, damage roofs, and cause widespread power outages.

This specific atmospheric setup over Kansas actually echoes the pattern we saw in late May of 2019. That was the same setup that produced the violent Linwood EF4 tornado. While the tornado threat tonight is lower at 5 percent, the overall energy in the atmosphere is serious business. This late-May threat comes right as the United States concludes its third consecutive year of above-average tornado activity for the month of May.

If your weekend plans involve setting up a campsite in the Carolinas, double-check your tarps and keep an eye on the radar. If you live in Kansas, keep your phone charged and off silent tonight. The weather is not waiting for June to show us exactly what summer looks like.

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