Blog Article
Northeast Flash Flood Risk Today: Moderate Risk Rainfall
WPC posts a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the Northeast today as storms train over New England, plus severe threats in FL/GA and the High Plains.
Northeast Flash Flooding Takes Center Stage While Severe Storms Stack Up Elsewhere
Alright y'all, let's start where the biggest concern actually is today, and that's the Northeast. The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall posted for a chunk of New England this morning, and here's the thing, it's not a forecast anymore in some spots. It's already happening.
What's Going On in New England Right Now
WPC's discussion this morning says intense rainfall is ongoing as we speak, with storms training, meaning cell after cell rolls over the same spots, across western Massachusetts, far southern Vermont, and broadly through southern New England. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour at times are stacking up fast. That's the kind of setup that turns small streams into real problems in a hurry.
This is basically a continuation of the pattern we've been tracking all week. Remember yesterday's outbreak across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast? Multiple tornado warnings from North Carolina up through Pennsylvania, water rescues in Coalport, PA and Durham, NC, a tornado report near Trappe, MD. That energy didn't just disappear. The moisture and the disturbance driving it are still parked over the region, and now it's the rain totals doing the damage instead of the wind.
For Day 2, that heavy rain threat doesn't go away, it just shifts. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall now targeting the lower Missouri Valley into the mid-to-upper Mississippi Valley for Thursday, as shortwave energy tracks across the central and northern Plains and runs into an increasingly moist, unstable airmass. Day 3 keeps a Slight Risk going, moving into the upper Midwest to mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. So this is a multi-day rainfall story working its way west to east through the middle of the country before things calm down some.
Severe Storms: Florida Panhandle Into Georgia, and the Northern High Plains
Separate from the flooding story, SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms up today in two very different places. The first is southern Georgia into northern Florida, including Jacksonville and Tallahassee. A stalled front combined with a high-CAPE environment, we're talking 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg per the local forecast office, means damaging wind gusts are the main threat there this afternoon and evening. Hail is possible too but the wind is the headline hazard.
The second area is way out in the northern High Plains, around Rapid City and Bismarck, where a mid-level ridge sliding east is going to help fire off thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail later today.
Key things to watch today:
- Continued flash flood potential in western MA, southern VT, and southern New England through this evening
- Damaging wind gusts possible in the Jacksonville-Tallahassee corridor this afternoon
- Scattered severe storms with wind and hail risk in the Rapid City/Bismarck area
- A 15% (Level 2) scattered damaging wind threat is the highest probability tier posted for today
Looking to Thursday, the severe threat contracts to a Slight Risk over a small part of south-central South Dakota into central Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk spreading from the northern High Plains through the upper Mississippi Valley, central Plains, and even down toward the Raton Mesa area of Colorado and New Mexico.
The Heat Story Building Behind All This
While the rain and storms are the headline today, keep an eye on the bigger pattern setting up behind it. Our own forecast discussion notes a strengthening heat dome pushing into the Central Plains and Midwest as we head into next week, with heat index values reaching 113 to 117 degrees in spots by the Days 4 through 7 period. That's dangerous heat, plain and simple, and it's expanding into the Southwest and Intermountain West too. We'll have more on that as it firms up, but if you've got outdoor plans in the Plains or Midwest late this week into next week, start thinking about it now.
For context on where we sit climatologically, Oklahoma City and Tulsa both run a normal high around 94 degrees this time of year, and Kansas City and St. Louis sit around 89. When heat index values climb into the 110s, we're talking well above what even a hot Plains summer day feels like on a thermometer alone. Humidity is doing a lot of that work.
Tropics Are Quiet, For Now
After a busy stretch, with Hurricane Genevieve reaching major hurricane status in the Eastern Pacific and Tropical Storm Bertha making landfall near New Orleans earlier this month, today's tropical data shows zero active storms and zero disturbances being tracked in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific. Enjoy the quiet while it lasts. This time of year, it rarely stays that way for long.
Space Weather: Minor and Manageable
Nothing urgent here. SWPC says the geomagnetic field is quiet to unsettled today with weak CME effects lingering, and there's a chance for M-class solar flares through July 31. A CME arrival could stir things up late Thursday into Friday, and the 27-day outlook flags a possible G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm around August 19. None of this affects your day-to-day weather, but aurora watchers in the northern tier might want to keep half an eye on it later this week.
How This Touches Your Plans Today
If you've got a ballgame or event in the Northeast corridor, plan around the rain. The Blue Jays are in DC to face the Nationals this afternoon, right in an area that sits at the intersection of today's severe risk and flood concern per the Baltimore/Washington forecast office. The Braves and Mets are playing in Queens, another spot that's seen repeated rounds of heavy rain this week. If you're flying through Boston, Providence, or Albany today, budget extra time. WPC's Moderate Risk zone lines up directly with those airports, and ground delays are a real possibility with LIFR and IFR conditions likely.
Down in the Southeast, if you're headed to the Jacksonville or Tallahassee area this afternoon, keep half an eye on the sky. That high-CAPE setup can turn a clear afternoon into a fast-moving wind threat.
Out in Ohio for the State Fair, or up in Chicago for Lollapalooza starting tomorrow, today looks comparatively quiet. Just know that heat is going to be the bigger factor building through the week for anyone in the Plains or Midwest with outdoor plans stretching into next week.
Bottom Line
Today's real concern is flash flooding across western Massachusetts and southern New England, where WPC has that Moderate Risk posted and storms are already training over the same ground. If you're in that corridor, know your local flood-prone spots and don't drive into water on the road, even if it looks shallow. Separately, keep an eye on the sky if you're in the Jacksonville-Tallahassee area or the northern High Plains today, where damaging wind gusts are the main severe threat. And start paying attention to the heat setup building in the Plains and Midwest for late next week. That one's still a ways out, but the ingredients are lining up for a genuinely dangerous stretch of heat.