Blog Article
May 11, 2026 Weather Recap: Texas Storms & LA Flooding
A complete weather recap of May 11, 2026. We break down the Texas severe storms, Louisiana flash flooding, and compare the impacts to our original forecast.
The Reality of May 11
Y'all, yesterday was a classic reminder that the atmosphere does not always read our forecast discussions. While we spent a lot of time talking about Florida, the real story on May 11, 2026, unfolded across the Gulf Coast. We had a severe mesoscale convective system roll through Texas, and significant flash flooding that forced folks out of their homes in Louisiana.
Here is what actually happened on the ground.
The Texas Wind and Louisiana Water
The most impactful weather of the day started early. A complex of severe thunderstorms pushed across south-central and southeast Texas. We saw a measured 75 mph wind gust in Hondo. Down in Beeville, emergency managers reported damage to power poles and numerous downed trees. Over in Charlotte, Texas, a tin outbuilding was completely destroyed by thunderstorm winds.
As that system moved east, the threat transitioned from wind to water. Southeastern Louisiana took a major hit. Baton Rouge and parts of Bell County saw up to 4.21 inches of rain. That is a whole lot of water in a short amount of time. The runoff caused the Tangipahoa River to rise fast, leading to evacuations at the Hidden Oaks trailer park near Robert, Louisiana.
Key Stats from May 11
- Peak Wind: 75 mph measured gust in Hondo, Texas.
- Top Rainfall: 4.21 inches in the Baton Rouge and Bell County areas.
- Marine Hazard: A large waterspout was confirmed by trained spotters just southwest of Marshallberg, North Carolina.
- Fire Weather: The Northern Plains saw 55 mph gusts and Red Flag Warnings.
- Wildcard Record: A rare May Blizzard Warning hit Point Lay, Alaska, dropping visibility to a quarter mile.
Ground Truth: What We Got Right and Wrong
Here is the thing about forecasting. You have to own your misses just as much as your hits. In yesterday's blog, we focused heavily on a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and severe storms along the I-95 corridor in Florida. While Florida did see some rain, the severe impacts there were minimal compared to the destructive winds in Texas and the flooding in Louisiana. We missed the magnitude of that Gulf Coast threat in our primary discussion.
However, the forecast for the Northern Plains was spot on. We warned that if a fire started, it would spread fast. Sure enough, critical fire weather conditions verified with 55 mph gusts whipping across the dry fuels in that region.
What Comes Next
The pattern is not slowing down. Today, the Storm Prediction Center still has a Marginal Risk for severe storms across the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Great Lakes.
But the big setup we are watching arrives Friday and Saturday. The SPC has already outlined a 15 percent probability area for severe weather across the Central Plains. We are going to see a dryline develop from the Texas Panhandle up into Kansas, pulling rich moisture northward. That is a classic spring severe weather setup, and we will be tracking it closely.
The Bottom Line
May 11 proved that secondary threats can easily become the main event. While we were watching the East Coast, a mesoscale convective system brought damaging winds to Texas and forced evacuations in Louisiana. As we head toward a potentially active weekend in the Plains, it is a good reminder to respect the forecast but always prepare for the unexpected.