Blog Article
July 10, 2026 Severe Weather Recap: Floods & Tornadoes
July 10, 2026 recap: 12.25 inches of rain and a PDS flood emergency in Missouri, tornado reports across the Corn Belt, and damaging wind in the Carolinas.
July 10, 2026 Recap: A Foot of Rain in Missouri and Tornadoes Across the Corn Belt
Alright folks, if you had to pick one number to remember from yesterday, it's 12.25. That's how many inches of rain a mesonet spotter measured near Oates, Missouri, in Iron County. That kind of total doesn't just cause flooding. It causes the National Weather Service to issue a Particularly Dangerous Situation Flash Flood Emergency, which is about the strongest hydrology alarm bell they can ring. They did exactly that for Iron and Reynolds counties.
Here's the thing about a foot of rain on ground that's already saturated. There's nowhere for it to go. That's why crews across Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois ran multiple swift-water rescues and put boats in the water. A bridge washed out in Massac County, Illinois. This was the headline story of the day, and it deserves to be.
How The Day Unfolded
The atmosphere didn't wait for the afternoon to get going. Get this: early morning convection out on the High Plains produced a measured 80 mph wind gust at a mesonet station near Goodland, Kansas. That's a serious gust before most of the country had finished its coffee.
From there, the day escalated across several regions at once:
- Morning: Severe storms fired on the High Plains, with that 80 mph gust near Goodland.
- Midday: A waterspout was reported on a traffic camera about 5 miles east-southeast of Gulfport, Mississippi, around 11:13 AM local.
- Afternoon: Tornado and wind reports spread across the Corn Belt and the Southeast. A public report near Osco, Illinois, noted dust with a funnel cloud. A landspout got reported by the public in Cape Coral, Florida.
- Late afternoon into evening: Cerro Gordo County Dispatch in Iowa relayed by radio that a tornado touched down about 2 miles east of Swaledale. Later, a brief tornado was caught on video dropping into a corn field about 2 miles northeast of Saybrook, Illinois.
Meanwhile the Carolinas took hits from damaging wind. Trees came down near Crowders and near Asheboro in North Carolina, and an emergency manager reported a tree down about 5 miles north of Delemar Crossroads, South Carolina.
The Tornado Reports, Straight From The Log
I want to be careful and honest here. These are the tornado-type reports confirmed in yesterday's storm reports. None of them have been given an EF-rating yet, because damage surveys take days. So I'm not going to slap a number on any of them.
- Osco, IL (12:40 PM local): Public reported dust associated with a funnel cloud. No known damage.
- 2 E Swaledale, IA (4:42 PM local): Tornado touchdown relayed by Cerro Gordo County Dispatch via law enforcement radio.
- 2 NE Saybrook, IL (6:40 PM local): Brief touchdown in a corn field, observed on video by the public.
There were also two circulation reports over or near water that aren't classic tornadoes: the waterspout near Gulfport and the landspout in Cape Coral. Different animals, worth mentioning, but I'm keeping them in their own bucket.
What We Forecast vs What Happened
This is the part where I hold our own feet to the fire.
Yesterday's blog led with the flooding story sliding south, and that framing held up. We told you the Weather Prediction Center had stepped the top tier down to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the central Appalachians, a notch below the Moderate Risk that verified so hard on Thursday and Friday. The Missouri flood emergency is the ground truth that shows why that earlier Moderate Risk was no joke.
We also flagged damaging wind gusts across the Ozarks and Tennessee Valley, with 60-plus mph gusts as the main hazard and SPC carrying a 15 percent (Level 2) wind probability. The verified reports back that up. The Carolinas wind damage lines up with the call that the threat would swing east toward the Carolinas and east Georgia.
Where I'll be straight with you: the tornado reports out of Iowa and Illinois were on the lower-probability end of the outlook. Those were isolated, and that's how they played. No fabricated damage tally, no rating. Just what the log says.
What's Coming Next
The pattern is settling into a familiar summer groove. For today, SPC has a Slight Risk of severe storms from the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley, plus southeast Arizona, with damaging wind the main concern (a 15 percent, Level 2 wind area). Cities in play include Nashville, Memphis, Huntsville, and Little Rock.
Tomorrow, Sunday, the Slight Risk shifts to east Georgia and much of South Carolina. Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Augusta are in that zone, again with wind as the primary hazard.
On the rainfall side, WPC keeps a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall going for the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, then nudges a Slight Risk toward the central Gulf Coast by Monday, where training and backbuilding storms can line up near the water. That's the same recipe that caused so much trouble this week, just relocated.
Tropics are quiet. There's one invest tagged in the Central Pacific, but nothing organized threatening land right now.
Bottom Line
July 10 was a flooding day first. A measured 12.25 inches near Oates, a PDS Flash Flood Emergency, swift-water rescues, and a washed-out bridge tell that story plainly. The severe wind and the scattered tornado reports across the Corn Belt and Carolinas were real, but they rode second chair to the water. The forecast got the big picture right: flood risk sliding south, wind as the main severe hazard, the threat rotating toward the Southeast. Keep an eye on the Tennessee Valley today and the Carolinas tomorrow, and remember that when the ground is already full, it doesn't take much more rain to turn dangerous.