Blog Article
Slight Risk Severe Weather: Dallas to KC Nov 2 Forecast
SPC Slight Risk for tornadoes, wind, and hail spans Dallas, OKC, Tulsa, and Kansas City today, with a flooding overlap and the threat shifting into the Mid-South Tuesday.
Slight Risk Severe Weather Targets Dallas to Kansas City Today, With Flooding Threat Riding Shotgun
Alright y'all, after a week that gave Arizona a 1993 flood record and washed out highways across the Four Corners, the pattern's attention shifts east today. SPC has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms posted from Dallas-Fort Worth up through Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and into Kansas City. That's today's headline, and it's the kind of day where you want a plan, not a panic button.
What's Setting This Up
An upper-level trough is digging out of the southern Rockies and crossing into the southern High Plains this morning. Ahead of it, low-level moisture is streaming north, and that's the fuel for storms developing this afternoon into tonight across the southern and central Plains, the Ozarks, and the lower Missouri Valley.
SPC's numbers break down like this for today:
- Tornado threat: 5% (Level 2) over the core of the Slight Risk, meaning a few tornadoes are possible. There's also a hatched zone embedded in there where any tornado that does form could reach EF2 or stronger. That's not the majority of the risk area, but it's worth knowing it's on the table.
- Wind threat: 15% (Level 2), the highest-confidence hazard today. Damaging gusts of 60 mph or better are the most likely way this goes severe.
- Hail threat: 5% (Level 1), quarter-size or better where storms root themselves.
Marginal Risk wraps around the Slight, stretching into Austin, Waco, Omaha, Des Moines, and Springfield, Missouri. If you're in that outer ring, storms are possible but less likely to turn nasty.
The Overlap: Rain on Top of Wind
Here's the layer that makes today a little more interesting. WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall posted for eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma, basically stacked right on top of part of the severe risk. Any storms that train or slow down over that zone could drop enough rain to cause flash flooding on top of the wind and hail threat. Florida's east coast, Space Coast down through southeast Florida, carries its own separate Slight Risk today too, a continuation of the soggy pattern that's hammered the peninsula since Halloween weekend.
Speaking of continuity, this is the same broad pattern that turned Oak Creek near Cornville, Arizona into a record-breaker Sunday, flooded 150 to 200 homes in Rimrock and Lake Montezuma, and collapsed Highway 151 in Colorado. The trough responsible for today's Plains severe weather is a different piece of energy, but the overall setup, a very active and moisture-rich November pattern, hasn't let up all week.
Timeline
- Today (Tuesday... er, Monday Nov 2): Slight Risk for Dallas-Fort Worth, OKC, Tulsa, and Kansas City. Storms fire this afternoon and continue into tonight. Peak timing favors afternoon through evening for the Plains, with activity continuing overnight as it tracks northeast.
- Tuesday (Day 2): The severe threat weakens to Marginal but shifts east into Memphis, Little Rock, Shreveport, and up into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. A brief tornado isn't ruled out, but the main concern becomes locally heavy rain and flash flooding where storms train along the front, especially in the Mid-South.
- Wednesday (Day 3): Best weather of the week sits over south-central Texas, central Oklahoma, and the Desert Southwest as high pressure briefly takes over behind the front.
Temperature and Comfort Context
Oklahoma City and Tulsa both normally sit in the low 60s for highs this time of November, with Dallas running closer to the upper 60s and Kansas City in the low-to-mid 50s. This system is riding in on a surge of Gulf moisture typical for a late-fall severe setup, so expect a muggy, overcast feel ahead of the front rather than crisp November air. That flips behind the front, with cooler, drier conditions moving in by midweek.
Nice Weather, If You Can Find It
Today's only truly beautiful air sits over south-central Nevada, where a departing system left things crisp, dry, and calm. Most of the country, including the severe zone, lands in the fair-to-decent range today thanks to cloud cover and cool afternoon temperatures. If you're headed to any of today's outdoor events, the UIL State Marching Band competition in San Antonio sits just outside the Slight Risk zone in the Marginal area, so keep an eye on radar even if it looks calm when you leave the house.
What We're Watching
- Storm mode this afternoon: discrete supercells versus a quick-moving line changes the tornado and wind risk balance
- Any watches issued by SPC for the I-35 corridor through Oklahoma and north Texas
- Training storms over eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma that could tip into flash flooding
- Tuesday's eastward shift into the Mid-South, where Memphis and Little Rock pick up both a Marginal severe risk and a Slight excessive rainfall risk
- The slow-moving Pacific tropical disturbance well southeast of Hawaii, which NHC gives a 60% chance of development by week's end. It's far from the mainland, but worth a glance if you're island-bound
Bottom Line
If you're in Dallas, Fort Worth, OKC, Tulsa, or Kansas City, today's a real severe weather day, not a huge outbreak, but enough instability and shear for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes, some possibly strong. Know where you'll go if a warning comes. If you're farther southeast in Little Rock, Memphis, or Shreveport, your turn comes tomorrow, and the bigger concern there may end up being rainfall rates, not just wind. Keep the weather radio charged and don't be shocked if today's clouds and tomorrow's rain feel more like April than November.