Blog Article

Ice Storm Risk: Freezing Rain Targets Texas to Carolinas This Weekend

A significant winter storm brings ice and snow risks to the South this weekend. See the timeline for Texas, Tennessee, and the Carolinas.

The Ice Risk Is Real: Why This Weekend Could Get Messy in the South

The Ice Risk Is Real: Why This Weekend Could Get Messy in the South

Hey y'all. I hope you're staying warm out there. Between the historic solar storm giving folks in Alabama a light show last night and that nasty 100-car pileup in Michigan, it has been a wild 24 hours. But here is the thing. We can't stare at the sky for too long because the weather map down here on Earth is lighting up again, and this time the threat is a little more slippery.

We talked earlier about this pattern reloading, but the latest data from the Weather Prediction Center is making me a little more nervous about an ice event for the South and Southeast. Let's break down what is happening.

The "Warm Nose" Problem

You might hear meteorologists talk about a "warm nose" aloft. No, that doesn't mean the atmosphere has a sinus infection. It means there is a layer of warm air sitting on top of a very shallow, dense layer of Arctic air near the ground.

Starting Friday, we have a system coming out of the Southwest that is going to pump moisture right over that cold dome.

Here is why that is bad news:

  • Snow falls from the clouds.
  • It hits that "warm nose" and melts into rain.
  • Then it hits the freezing air at the surface (where your car and power lines are).
  • It freezes on contact.

This is the recipe for freezing rain, and right now, the data is painting a bullseye from Central Texas, through the Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually over into the Carolinas.

Timeline: Who Needs to Watch Out?

This is going to move in waves, so you need to know when your turn is coming up.

Friday: The Southern Plains

Texas and Oklahoma, you are up first. We are looking at a messy mix developing Friday. North Texas and Oklahoma might see more snow, but Central Texas could see that freezing rain accumulation. If you have plans Friday night in the Austin or Dallas areas, you need to have a backup plan. The roads could go from wet to an ice rink in a hurry.

Saturday: The Deep South & Tennessee Valley

This mess spreads east into Arkansas, Tennessee, and the northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. We aren't talking about a fun snow day for everyone here. We are talking about slick bridges and potential power flickers if that ice accumulates on the lines.

Saturday Night into Sunday: The Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic

This is the part of the forecast I am watching like a hawk. The system targets North Carolina and Virginia by the second half of the weekend. I know a lot of folks are heading to the Big Southern Classic Battle of the Bands in Charlotte on Saturday. Please keep a close eye on this forecast. Getting there might be okay, but getting home could be treacherous if that wintry mix starts coming down heavy Saturday night.

Don't Forget the Midwest & The Cold

While all eyes are on the South, the Midwest isn't off the hook. We have a "Clipper" system diving through the Great Lakes through Wednesday. It's a quick hitter, bringing 1 to 3 inches of snow to places like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. But the real story there is the wind. Behind this system, we are looking at wind chills dropping to -50 degrees in the Dakotas by late week. That is dangerous cold, plain and simple.

Bottom Line

  • The South: The risk for a significant ice storm is growing for Friday and Saturday. Check your emergency kits now. You want batteries and blankets ready just in case.
  • Travelers: If you are driving I-40 or I-35 in the Southern Plains this weekend, expect delays and hazardous conditions.
  • The Carolinas: Saturday night events are at risk. Stay tuned for updates on timing.
  • The Cold: It is not leaving yet. Keep those pipes wrapped and pets inside.

We are going to be watching the radar closely as this develops. Don't let your guard down just because the sun comes out for a day or two. Stay safe, y'all!

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