Blog Article

Midwest Severe Weather Threat Saturday: Wind & Large Hail

A Level 3 Enhanced Risk threatens the Midwest on Saturday with 75 mph winds and 2-inch hail, while the East Coast faces a Level 2 Slight Risk today.

The Midwest Reloads for Saturday While the East Coast Braces Today

Y'all, it was a long night across Illinois and Indiana. We saw catastrophic damage and a Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Emergency. The folks out there are waking up to an absolute mess. The atmosphere is highly volatile right now, and the pattern is just not breaking yet.

That same system that caused yesterday's trouble is pushing east today. But here is the thing, the Midwest is going to see another significant round of severe weather by Saturday afternoon.

The East Coast Threat Today

Before we talk about the weekend, we have to get through today. The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk stretching from New York down through Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC.

The main hazard today is going to be 60 mph wind gusts. If you are heading to the World Cup watch parties or catching the Braves play the Mets in Queens tonight, you need to keep a close eye on the radar. Those wind gusts can easily toss tailgating tents and bring down tree limbs. It is not a panic situation, but it is a day to stay weather aware if you have outdoor plans along the I-95 corridor.

Saturday's Midwest Reload

Tomorrow is the day that really has my attention. We have a Level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk covering eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, and west-central Illinois. Cities like Kansas City, St. Louis, and Topeka are right in the bullseye.

We have a ton of instability building up across the Plains. We are talking about 2500 to 4000 J/kg of CAPE. That is pure thunderstorm fuel. When the low-level jet kicks in tomorrow afternoon, storms are going to fire rapidly.

They will likely start as discrete supercells. The SPC has highlighted a 15 percent hatched area for severe hail. That means if a storm gets going, it could easily drop hailstones over 2 inches across. That is hen-egg size, and it will absolutely dent a car or damage a roof.

As the evening goes on, those individual storms are expected to merge into a bowing line. That is when the wind threat takes over. There is a 30 percent hatched risk for damaging winds, with the strongest gusts potentially topping 75 mph.

Flooding and Heat

We cannot ignore the water, either. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall posted for the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. We could see 3 to 5 inches of rain. The ground in places like Iowa and Illinois is already soaked from yesterday's storms. Flash flooding is a very real concern, especially if these storms start training over the same areas.

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is dealing with a totally different extreme. Record-breaking heat is building into the region. Folks in the Willamette Valley are looking at highs in the 80s and 90s. For context, typical June highs up there are usually much cooler, so you will definitely want to keep the AC running.

Space Weather Bump

Oh, and get this. The Space Weather Prediction Center says we have a G1 Minor geomagnetic storm happening today. That is going to bump up to a G2 Moderate storm on Saturday thanks to some fast solar wind hitting our atmosphere. If the skies clear out up north, you might just catch the aurora this weekend.

Bottom Line

If you live on the East Coast, keep an eye on the sky this afternoon and evening. Have a plan to move inside if a warning is issued for your area.

If you live between Kansas City and Peoria, you need to treat Saturday seriously. The atmosphere is primed for very large hail and destructive winds. Secure your loose outdoor furniture today. Make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries, and have multiple ways to get warnings that will actually wake you up if storms roll through after dark.

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