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Severe Weather Splits: Plains Hail & Mid-South Wind Today

A Level 2 Slight Risk targets the Central Plains with large hail and the Mid-South with damaging winds today. Plus, tracking severe storms in the Dakotas.

The Severe Threat Splits Today, Plus a Look at the Dakotas Tomorrow

The Severe Threat Splits Today, Plus a Look at the Dakotas Tomorrow

We had quite a weekend, y'all. From that confirmed tornado near Centerville, South Dakota, to the 70 mph wind gusts that rolled through Missouri last night, the atmosphere has been working overtime. If you were watching the Cardinals game in St. Louis yesterday, you probably saw the lightning flashing in the distance. The Texas Rangers are in town for another game tonight. The good news for baseball fans is the severe threat has shifted away from the I-70 corridor.

Today, the Storm Prediction Center has a Level 2 Slight Risk posted for two very different areas. We are looking at a split setup targeting the Central Plains and the Mid-South.

Hail in the High Plains, Wind in the South

Out west, storms are going to fire off the Front Range this afternoon. Places like Denver, Greeley, and Aurora are right in the mix. The main hazard here is large hail. The SPC has a 15 percent hatched area for severe hail. That means if a storm gets going and taps into the available energy, we could see hailstones two inches in diameter or larger. That is hen-egg size, folks. It is more than enough to dent your car or damage a roof.

Down south, from Memphis over to Huntsville, the story is completely different. We have a 15 percent probability for damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. These storms will likely form into a cluster and push southeast through the afternoon and evening. If you have outdoor plans, you will want to keep a close eye on the radar.

Tuesday Brings Trouble to the Dakotas

By Tuesday, the main severe weather engine moves north. The SPC has a Slight Risk covering parts of the Dakotas, including Bismarck, Minot, and Rapid City.

We are looking at another day with a 15 percent hatched hail threat and a 15 percent wind threat. There is also a 2 percent chance for an isolated tornado. If you are heading to the Twins game up in Minneapolis tomorrow night, the worst of this should stay well to your west. Just keep an eye on the sky if you are traveling on I-94.

Flash Flooding Concerns in the Southwest

We also need to talk about rain. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday across West Texas and eastern New Mexico.

Here is the thing. Deep southeasterly flow is going to push Gulf moisture right up into the high terrain. That is a classic setup for training thunderstorms, where heavy rain falls over the same areas repeatedly. If you live near a burn scar in New Mexico or along the Pecos River Valley, flash flooding is a real concern.

A Quick Look at the Tropics

Get this. We are already tracking a broad area of low pressure in the East Pacific. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next seven days. It is sitting well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula. It is moving west and is not a threat to the US right now, but it shows the tropics are waking up.

The Bottom Line

  • Today: If you are in the Central Plains, park the car in the garage to avoid the large hail threat. If you are in the Mid-South, secure your patio furniture and prepare for gusty winds.
  • Tuesday: The Dakotas need to be on alert for supercells capable of producing very large hail and isolated tornadoes.
  • Tuesday Rain: Flash flooding is a distinct possibility in eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Never drive through flooded roadways.

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