Blog Article
Vance, Olana, and NM Flooding: Halloween Week Weather
Two tropical storms spin in the Pacific while New Mexico braces for more rain after last week's flash flood emergency. Here's what Halloween week's weather really means.
Two Tropical Storms and a Flooded Desert: This Halloween Week's Real Weather Story
Alright folks, Halloween's not even here yet and the atmosphere's already doing its best horror movie bit. We've got two tropical storms spinning at the same time on opposite sides of the Pacific. Get this. Vance is churning off southwestern Mexico. Olana just got named near Hawaii. And trailing right behind Olana is Invest 94C, basically the sequel nobody asked for.
But here's the thing about good scary stories. It's all in the ending. And both of these systems are headed for pretty tame ones.
The Twin Storms, Explained
Vance sits about 285 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, with 69 mph winds, moving north-northwest at a crawl. The storm's actually falling apart a little as we speak. Wind shear is tearing at it and dry mid-level air is choking off the thunderstorm activity on its southeast side. Forecasters expect Vance to weaken steadily and pass well offshore, with its closest approach to Mazatlan still five days out and down to about 35 mph by then. No US impact, no coastal watches issued.
Olana is younger and weaker, just upgraded from a depression with 40 mph winds way out in the Central Pacific, about 580 miles southwest of Johnston Island. It's drifting toward Hawaii on an east-northeast track, and the models have its closest pass near Kauai's south shore late this week, likely down around 29 mph by the time it gets there. That's barely tropical storm strength, if it's even still tropical by then.
Neither storm threatens the US mainland. That's the good ending. Write it down.
The Real Scare Is in New Mexico
Now let's talk about the story that actually matters to your week. If you were watching the news Saturday night, you saw it. Interstate 40 closed in both directions near Seama after floodwater ran across the highway. Floodwater got into the first floor of Sky City Casino near North Acomita Village, and folks had to shelter on the second floor. The San Juan River crested so high near Farmington and Bloomfield that law enforcement ran more than 60 water rescues earlier this week, with up to 1,500 structures touched by the river. That's not a Halloween story. That's just this October in the Southwest.
And the ground still isn't done. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms out today and tonight across New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle, covering El Paso, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell, and Alamogordo. Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and maybe a tornado or two are possible. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk of excessive rainfall over that same stretch of the Central and Southern High Plains through Monday morning, with model guidance pointing at 2 to 4 inches possible in spots near the northern Texas Panhandle. That's layered right on top of saturated soil and swollen arroyos from the last several days.
- Marginal severe risk: El Paso, Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Roswell, Alamogordo
- Slight excessive rainfall risk: Central/Southern High Plains and southeast Florida
- Flash flood concern repeats tonight into Monday morning across the same NM/west TX corridor
If you've got family in Farmington, Shiprock, or anywhere along the San Juan basin, this isn't the week to get complacent just because the sun came out Sunday. Ground that's already soaked floods faster the second time around.
Where the Weather's Actually Behaving
Flip the map east and south and it's a different world entirely. Today's nicest weather sits in a broad band from the Carolinas and Georgia through Alabama, eastern Tennessee, and the southern Appalachians, plus Southern California and southeastern Arizona. Light wind, clear skies, basically zero rain chance. That's good news if you're one of the thousands who ran the Marine Corps Marathon in Arlington this morning, or if you're headed to Ghostbusters in Concert tonight in Charleston. Fall festival weather, genuinely.
Out in Seattle, the Seahawks host the Chiefs tonight at Lumen Field, and the bigger weather story for the Pacific Northwest isn't tonight's game, it's what comes after. A persistent upper-level trough is setting up to bring repeated rounds of mountain snow to the Cascades and Intermountain West from midweek into the weekend. Nothing in the pipeline tonight threatens kickoff, but Seattle fans should know winter's knocking on the door a little earlier than normal this year.
The Takeaway
Halloween week gave us two tropical storms at once, and neither one's the scary part. The real story is New Mexico and west Texas catching another round of rain on ground that's still drying out from the last one. Watch that corridor through Monday. Everybody else from the Carolinas to the desert Southwest, go enjoy the fall weather while it's here. It won't stick around forever.