Blog Article

Tropics Still Active as Cold Front Splits the East Coast

Three tropical disturbances churn in the Atlantic and Pacific while a cold front brings severe risk to Virginia and flood risk to New England this Friday.

While Everybody Argued About the Midterms, the Tropics Kept Spinning

While Everybody Argued About the Midterms, the Tropics Kept Spinning

Alright folks, let's be honest. Nobody's phone this week has been blowing up with weather alerts. It's been midterm results, impeachments overseas, stock market whiplash. The kind of news cycle where you forget to check the sky. Get this, though. While all that was happening, three different patches of ocean quietly decided they weren't done with 2026 hurricane season just yet.

Three Spots Nobody's Talking About

Hurricane season officially wraps up November 30, both in the Atlantic and out in the Pacific. That date's close enough that a lot of folks mentally check out of tropical weather once Halloween candy's gone. The National Hurricane Center didn't get that memo.

  • Invest 94AL, sitting a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, is a gale-force low that's non-tropical for now but could pick up some subtropical characteristics over the next couple days. NHC gives it a 30% shot at development through day 2 and 40% through day 7. Medium confidence, slow mover.
  • CP-AREA-2, several hundred miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii, is the one to watch. NHC's language is about as confident as this stuff gets: a tropical depression is expected, possibly as soon as today. Day 2 and day 7 odds both sit at 90%, officially a High risk.
  • EP-AREA-3, further west in the eastern Pacific, sits at a more modest 40% by day 2 and 50% by day 7.

None of these are a threat to land right now, and nothing here is forecast to affect the US mainland in the near term. But if you've been telling yourself hurricane season is basically a wrap, Hawaii's about to be reminded it isn't.

Friday's Front Has Two Completely Different Moods

Closer to home, there's a cold front and upper trough sliding across the Eastern Seaboard Friday, and it's bringing two totally different problems depending on where you live.

Down along the Outer Banks, Cape Lookout, Virginia Beach, and Norfolk, SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe storms. That's the lowest rung on the ladder, but it's real. We're talking a 2% isolated tornado chance and a 5% chance of a damaging gust past 60 mph if a cell manages to organize along that boundary. Not a big outbreak. Just enough instability and 35 to 45 knot shear to make a strong storm or two possible Friday into Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, way up in southeastern New England, the same broad system is setting up a very different kind of trouble. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, with precipitable water values running 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Translation: the atmosphere up there is loaded with moisture, and forecasters are watching for 3 to 5 inches of rain, maybe more, in favored spots. That's enough to cause real urban and small-stream flooding around Providence.

One front, two personalities. Coastal Carolina and Virginia get the wind-and-lightning conversation. Southern New England gets the flood-watch conversation.

The One Good Weather Window

Here's the silver lining. Today's nicest stretch of weather in the whole country sits in a narrow belt running from southeastern Arizona across southwestern Kansas and southern Nebraska into the lower Mississippi Valley, Middle Tennessee, and northern Alabama. High pressure scoured the clouds and humidity out behind recent fronts, and the composite score there landed at 89.3, a BEAUTIFUL rating. Mid-60s highs keep it from going higher, but for November, that's about as good as it gets.

Friday, that sweet spot shifts into southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, where a dry reinforcing air mass pushes the score up to 92. Oklahoma City runs an average November high around 61 and Tulsa sits near 60, so a crisp, clear afternoon there this time of year is close to textbook. If you've got a tailgate, a drive, or just an excuse to be outside in that corridor Friday, take it.

What This Means for Your Weekend

If you're in the Hampton Roads area or out toward the Outer Banks, keep half an eye on the sky Friday afternoon. Nothing dramatic expected, but a stray strong storm wouldn't shock anybody given the setup. If you're in Rhode Island or eastern Massachusetts, this is the one where you actually want to check for standing water before you commit to driving through it this weekend. And if you happen to be anywhere from the southern Plains into the Mid-South the next couple days, you drew the good card. Enjoy it while it lasts.

As for the tropics, nothing here needs your attention tonight. But three separate systems spinning up in the same week the news cycle went nuclear is a good reminder that the atmosphere doesn't read headlines. It just keeps doing its thing, whether CNN's covering it or not.

https://ryanhallyall.com/blog/while-everybody-argued-about-the-midterms-the-tropics-kept-spinning