Video

Polar vortex winds reverse, but most of U.S. stays warm into Thanksgiving

By Ryan Hall, Y'all Weather Desk · Published November 12, 2026, 6:16 PM ET

Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video.

Watch on YouTube: The Pattern Flips TWICE Before Thanksgiving...

Ryan says the winds around the polar vortex reversed over the North Pole on Wednesday, Nov. 11, the earliest that has happened in records going back to 1959, yet most of the country should still run warmer than normal heading into Thanksgiving. The cold is going to Siberia, while parts of the South get a brief, late first freeze: Nashville reaches 30 Friday night, Nov. 13, and 28 Saturday night, Nov. 14; Memphis reaches 31 Friday night; and Birmingham and Charlotte reach 32 Saturday night, while Atlanta sits near 33 with frost before warm air returns next week. The bigger question for travelers is a storm Ryan is watching for Friday and Saturday, Nov. 20 and 21.

What Ryan covered

• A short freeze in the South. Ryan says Nashville drops to 30 Friday night and 28 Saturday night. Memphis hits 31 Friday night, Birmingham and Charlotte reach 32 Saturday night, and Atlanta sits near 33 with frost. For many places it's the first freeze of fall, about 12 days late in Nashville and 11 days late in Charlotte. Anything still growing from Arkansas and Tennessee into Alabama and the Carolinas should come inside Friday night.
• A quick rebound. By the end of next week, Ryan expects Nashville back in the 60s and Dallas near 70. He says the best odds of a warmer-than-normal week are over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
• Why a broken vortex isn't bringing the cold here. About 20 miles up, the winds that normally race west to east around the pole stopped Wednesday and blew backward. That pushed the heart of the vortex off the pole, over Scandinavia, and it slides into Siberia by the end of the week. Eastern Siberia is running about 17 degrees colder than normal, while most of Canada and the eastern U.S. are warmer.
• El Nino in the background. Ryan says Pacific water is running warmer than at the peak of the 2015 Super El Nino, with a good chance this becomes the strongest El Nino on record. Whether any of this reaches the U.S. in December, he says, "we don't know if that's going to be the case yet."
• A rough start in the West. Ryan says the first storm hits Northern California on Friday with up to 20 inches of heavy, wet snow along the Sierra crest west of Lake Tahoe and gusts of 70 to 90 mph over the ridges. Interstate 80 and Highway 50 could be very difficult Friday into Saturday. Breaking waves near San Francisco could reach 25 to 35 feet, with some at 45 to 50 feet. A stronger storm follows Sunday into Monday.

The storm around Nov. 20 and 21

Ryan expects those Western storms to keep moving east and fuel a system that comes together just east of the Rockies. He says a moderate risk for heavy rain is showing from East Texas into Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi, including Houston, Shreveport, Little Rock and Jackson. Half of Arkansas is in the worst level of drought, and Little Rock has had about a fifth of its normal rain since September. Heavy snow is possible in the Colorado and Utah mountains and out onto the High Plains from Denver to Wyoming. Strong wind is possible from the West Coast to the Mississippi Valley, and rain reaches the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.

Ryan says the track is "still up in the air." Behind the storm, the air turns cooler, not Arctic.

What the official outlooks add

Our winter storm outlook backs up the busy West. It calls for multiple rounds of mountain snow from the Cascades and Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin and Rockies through mid to late next week. Confidence is high on the general path of the first front into the West Coast Sunday, and moderate on inland snow totals. Snow reaches the Wasatch, Tetons, Wind River Range and central Colorado Rockies on Tuesday. Much of the rest of the country stays mostly dry under a ridge in the center and high pressure in the East.

The Olympic Peninsula in Washington has a Level 1 of 4 (Marginal) flash flood risk Saturday, Nov. 14. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected Saturday night on top of earlier rain, with the Skokomish River already running high.

Thanksgiving travel, Monday through Wednesday

Ryan's first look, with his confidence:

• Texas through the Plains: mostly dry, fairly confident.
• Great Lakes: mostly dry, near-normal temperatures, fairly confident.
• Denver and the Rockies: mostly dry, fairly confident.
• Ohio Valley and Mid-South: a few showers Monday, then drier and cooler, less sure.
• Northeast and Southeast: some showers, but the models disagree, so low confidence.
• West Coast: another round of heavy rain and mountain snow from California to the Northwest, pretty confident, with timing and amounts still shifting.

His bottom line: parts of the South freeze this weekend, the West gets hit hard, and next week warms up for most of the country. What he doesn't know yet is where the Nov. 20 and 21 storm goes and whether it slows down enough to disrupt travel days. He'll track it daily. You can also get Y'all Alerts for free.

Watch the full video above for Ryan's maps and his region-by-region travel breakdown.

Explained: What a Freeze Warning means, and how it differs from a Frost Advisory

More on Weather records, November 2026

Places in this story: Nashville, TN; Memphis, TN; Birmingham, AL; Charlotte, NC; Atlanta, GA; Dallas, TX

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