Video

Ryan Expects At Least Normal Snowfall Across All of Virginia

By Ryan Hall, Y'all Weather Desk · Published

Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video.

Watch on YouTube: Virginia's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different...

Key points

  • Ryan points out that almost three-quarters of the state comes in at 20% more snow than normal or better. In his words, "Not one spot in your whole entire state comes in below normal on my map this winter."
  • Ryan says a near-record El Nino is the driver. He explains that a strong El Nino sends storm after storm across the Gulf, and many of them turn up the East Coast, which is the track that brings Virginia its biggest snows.
  • Ryan notes that all five long-range models he looks at have Virginia wetter than normal. He puts the eastern half of the state at about one and a half times a normal winter's precipitation. More than a quarter of Virginia is in drought right now, and he says a wet winter is what fixes that.
  • Ryan looked at the eight strongest El Nino winters. In Arlington, Richmond, Roanoke and Lynchburg, five of the eight brought more snow than normal.
  • Ryan warns this is not a cold-winter call. The models lean a little milder than normal, so he calls it "more of a storm track forecast." More storms up the coast raise the odds that one meets cold air.

Ryan says no spot in Virginia comes in below normal for snow this winter on his map, and Roanoke and Blacksburg land in his top band at more than 30% above normal. Freezing or near-freezing temperatures reach several Virginia cities Saturday night, Nov. 14, so this is a good weekend to start getting ready.

What Ryan covered

  • Ryan points out that almost three-quarters of the state comes in at 20% more snow than normal or better. In his words, "Not one spot in your whole entire state comes in below normal on my map this winter."
  • Ryan says a near-record El Nino is the driver. He explains that a strong El Nino sends storm after storm across the Gulf, and many of them turn up the East Coast, which is the track that brings Virginia its biggest snows.
  • Ryan notes that all five long-range models he looks at have Virginia wetter than normal. He puts the eastern half of the state at about one and a half times a normal winter's precipitation. More than a quarter of Virginia is in drought right now, and he says a wet winter is what fixes that.
  • Ryan looked at the eight strongest El Nino winters. In Arlington, Richmond, Roanoke and Lynchburg, five of the eight brought more snow than normal.
  • Ryan warns this is not a cold-winter call. The models lean a little milder than normal, so he calls it "more of a storm track forecast." More storms up the coast raise the odds that one meets cold air.

Freeze Saturday night

Only one big Virginia city has hit freezing so far this fall: Lynchburg. Ryan says that changes Saturday night. He has Lynchburg at 28°F, Blacksburg at 29°F, Charlottesville at 30°F, Roanoke at 32°F, and Richmond near 32°F. Norfolk stays in the upper 30s. If you have plants out west of I-95, Saturday is the night to cover them.

What the history says

Northern Virginia has seen some of its biggest snows in winters like this one. Ryan notes that 2009 into 2010 was the snowiest winter on record at Dulles at 73 inches, and he says this winter's pattern looks similar. In February 2010, Dulles got 32 inches in two days, then 9 more four days later. The two biggest one-day snow totals there both came in strong El Nino winters: 22 1/2 inches on Feb. 11, 1983, and 22 inches on Jan. 23, 2016.

It does not always work out. Three of the eight strong El Nino winters were busts, and in one of them Northern Virginia got about a tenth of an inch all winter. Ryan says most of the time El Nino means more snow for Virginia, "not every single time."

Hampton Roads is the hardest call. Norfolk beat its normal snowfall in only three of the eight winters. Ryan has the city a little above normal, but normal there is around 3 inches, so he says it comes down to one or two storms. Across the state, he adds, snow, sleet and ice can all come down to a couple of degrees in the same storm. One storm can also vary a lot across short distances: Snowmageddon dropped 32 inches at Dulles and less than 7 inches in Richmond.

The bottom line

Ryan's answer to whether this is the winter Virginia gets more snow than normal: for most of the state, he thinks it is. The catch is whether storms ride up the coast with enough cold air. When the first one heads toward Virginia, he says that is what he will be watching most. You can follow our snow forecasts and winter storm outlook as storms approach, and sign up for free Y'all Alerts.

Watch Ryan's full Virginia winter breakdown in the video above.

More on Mid-Atlantic winter weather, November 2026

Places in this story: Roanoke, VA; Norfolk, VA; Blacksburg, VA; Richmond, VA

Sources

https://ryanhallyall.com/news/ryan-expects-at-least-normal-snowfall-across-all-of-virginia