Winter weather
A first freeze could reach Chicago and Indianapolis next weekend, Nov. 14-15
By Ryan Hall, Y'all Weather Desk ยท Published
Written by our automated news desk from National Weather Service data.
Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Nashville have about a 6 in 10 chance or better of a low at 32 or colder next Saturday or Sunday morning. St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha sit closer to 45%. This is still five to six days out, so it is something to plan for, not a locked forecast.
Key points
- Where: Best odds in Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Chicago and Nashville. Middling odds from St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha east to Detroit and Louisville.
- When: Early Saturday or early Sunday morning, Nov. 14-15, in your local time.
- What: A low of 32 or colder. Indianapolis sits at 70%, Cincinnati at 65%, Chicago and Nashville at 63%.
As of Sunday morning, Chicago had not hit 32 degrees once this fall, and next Saturday or Sunday morning (Nov. 14-15) could bring its first freeze. Indianapolis has the best odds of reaching 32 or colder next weekend. Cincinnati follows, with Chicago and Nashville close behind. The chance is real, but it is still five to six days out and not locked in.
Who has the best shot at 32
We looked at 81 computer model runs and counted how many dropped each city to 32 or colder on either weekend morning. Indianapolis led at 70%. Cincinnati followed at 65%, then Chicago and Nashville at 63%.
Farther out on the edges, the odds fade. St. Louis is at 47%, Kansas City 46% and Omaha 44%. Detroit is at 42% and Louisville 41%. Buffalo is down at 20%. Farther south, Atlanta is at 5%, Birmingham 2% and Mobile 0%, with none of the model runs showing a freeze in Mobile.
These are odds, not temperatures. A 63% chance in Chicago means most runs get there and a good number do not. A city at 45% is a toss-up on whether it freezes. The model runs also lump Saturday and Sunday together, so the exact morning is still up in the air.
How close cities have come so far
The lows so far have come close but not close enough. As of Sunday morning, Chicago O'Hare had bottomed out at 33 on Nov. 7. Omaha also hit 33, and Kansas City got down to 35. Sunday morning brought 33 to Indianapolis and Columbus, and 34 to Detroit. St. Louis and Cleveland have each reached 34, Buffalo 34 and Louisville 36.
Cincinnati read 32 at 4:52 AM Sunday. That would be its first freeze if the official climate report agrees.
Some cities up north are already done waiting. Minneapolis froze on Nov. 6, and Milwaukee and Des Moines followed on Nov. 7.
Bottom line
A low of 32 or colder next weekend looks more likely than not for Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Chicago and Nashville, and it is a coin-sized question mark for St. Louis, Kansas City and Omaha. We will update the odds as they change.
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis | 70% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Cincinnati | 65% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Chicago | 63% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Nashville | 63% of 81 ensemble runs |
| St. Louis | 47% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Kansas City | 46% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Omaha | 44% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Detroit | 42% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Louisville | 41% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Buffalo | 20% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Atlanta | 5% of 81 ensemble runs |
| Birmingham | 2% of 81 ensemble runs |
First freeze tracker: every big city's date
Explained: What a Freeze Warning means, and how it differs from a Frost Advisory
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Places in this story: Indianapolis, IN; Cincinnati, OH; Chicago, IL; Nashville, TN; St. Louis, MO; Kansas City, MO; Omaha, NE; Detroit, MI; Louisville, KY; Buffalo, NY; Atlanta, GA; Birmingham, AL
Sources
- ECMWF ensemble, 00Z run Nov 8, ECMWF
- GEFS ensemble, 06Z run Nov 8, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
- NOAA Regional Climate Centers ACIS station records, NOAA Regional Climate Centers (ACIS)
- Iowa Environmental Mesonet observations, Iowa Environmental Mesonet (Iowa State University)