Video
Florida winter outlook: wetter, stormier, with nighttime tornado risk
By Ryan Hall, Y'all Weather Desk ยท Published
Written by our automated news desk from Ryan's video.
Watch on YouTube: Florida's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different...
Key points
- The driver is El Nino. Ryan points out that this one has put up the highest weekly numbers ever measured. It stretches the fast river of air high above, the subtropical jet stream, across the Gulf and into Florida all winter, and storm after storm rides along it.
- Rain is the best bet. He says every one of the newest seasonal models has Florida wetter than normal, and the official outlook gives Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Orlando about a 70% chance of a wetter winter. In the big El Nino of 1997 into 1998, Tampa got 31 inches of rain in a winter that normally brings about 8. Ryan notes not every El Nino does this, since 1991 and 1992 ended up dry over most
- Strong tornadoes are the red flag. A typical Florida season brings about two strong tornadoes from November to April. Ryan says the big El Nino seasons he checked brought closer to six or seven. Florida has had only two F4 tornadoes since 1950, in April 1958 near St. Petersburg and April 1966 across central Florida, and both came in strong El Nino seasons.
- Night is the danger. Only about one in three Florida winter tornadoes happens at night, but Ryan says two out of every three deaths do. That makes a night tornado about four times as likely to kill. He points to the Lake County tornadoes after 3 AM on Feb. 2, 2007, which killed 21 people, and a 3:35 AM tornado near Duette in January 2016 that killed two people in a mobile home.
- Cold is possible, not promised. Ryan says every model leans cooler, especially by February. But the last big El Nino, 2015 into 2016, was one of Florida's warmest winters.
Ryan expects Florida's dry season, November through April, to run wetter and a little cooler than normal, with about twice the normal rainfall. He says a strong El Nino also raises the odds of strong to violent tornadoes, and the ones he worries about most come in the middle of the night. The season is just starting, so this is the week to set up your warnings and sort out a safe place to go.
What Ryan covered
- The driver is El Nino. Ryan points out that this one has put up the highest weekly numbers ever measured. It stretches the fast river of air high above, the subtropical jet stream, across the Gulf and into Florida all winter, and storm after storm rides along it.
- Rain is the best bet. He says every one of the newest seasonal models has Florida wetter than normal, and the official outlook gives Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Orlando about a 70% chance of a wetter winter. In the big El Nino of 1997 into 1998, Tampa got 31 inches of rain in a winter that normally brings about 8. Ryan notes not every El Nino does this, since 1991 and 1992 ended up dry over most of the peninsula.
- Strong tornadoes are the red flag. A typical Florida season brings about two strong tornadoes from November to April. Ryan says the big El Nino seasons he checked brought closer to six or seven. Florida has had only two F4 tornadoes since 1950, in April 1958 near St. Petersburg and April 1966 across central Florida, and both came in strong El Nino seasons.
- Night is the danger. Only about one in three Florida winter tornadoes happens at night, but Ryan says two out of every three deaths do. That makes a night tornado about four times as likely to kill. He points to the Lake County tornadoes after 3 AM on Feb. 2, 2007, which killed 21 people, and a 3:35 AM tornado near Duette in January 2016 that killed two people in a mobile home.
- Cold is possible, not promised. Ryan says every model leans cooler, especially by February. But the last big El Nino, 2015 into 2016, was one of Florida's warmest winters.
Ryan is clear this is not a guarantee. Two of the eight strongest El Nino seasons brought no strong tornado at all. In his words, "I'm not trying to scare anybody." His point is that the ingredients will be there more often than usual.
What to do
Ryan says to have more than one way to get a warning, especially overnight. If you live in a mobile home, pick a sturdier place to go and leave before the storms arrive. He also points to a phone-call warning service he built as one more layer.
Where things stand this week
No severe storms are outlined for Florida today, Wednesday or Thursday. The nearest risk is a Level 1 of 5 (Marginal) along the Texas coast tonight. A Flood Warning is up for the St. Johns River near Sanford, with minor flooding forecast until further notice, which fits the wet start Ryan describes. He says October was Florida's seventh wettest on record. You can check every active warning and the severe storm outlooks any time.
Watch Ryan's full video above for his complete Florida breakdown, from the Panhandle to the Keys.
More on Florida severe weather, November 2026
Places in this story: Jacksonville, FL; Orlando, FL; Tampa, FL; Miami, FL; Tallahassee, FL
Sources
- Ryan Hall Xtra video: Florida's Winter Is About To Be VERY Different, Ryan Hall Xtra, issued
https://ryanhallyall.com/news/florida-winter-outlook-wetter-stormier-with-nighttime-tornado-risk